[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] XRP has fallen back toward a long-term resistance line it broke in late 2024, drawing market attention to whether its long-term uptrend can hold.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Sept. 30 (local time) that XRP's weekly chart is again showing a compression-and-breakout structure similar to the period before a major past rally, within the 2014 to 2026 trend.

The market is watching whether XRP can secure support above the long-term trendline. XRP broke through a downward resistance line that had blocked gains for years in late 2024, but a recent correction has pulled it back to around $1.50, where that line runs.

This area is important because similar long-term compression patterns in the past were followed by steep gains after a breakout. XRP formed a symmetrical triangle from 2014 to early 2017, with lower highs and higher lows. After breaking above the top of the triangle in 2017, it surged to around $3.40 in January 2018.

Some interpret the current chart as showing a similar structure over a longer period. XRP traded below a downward resistance line after its 2018 high, and its range narrowed as support levels gradually rose from the 2020 low. It later moved above the resistance line in a late-2024 rally. Ripple said XRP rose about 280 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 and reached about $2.70 in late November.

The rally continued, climbing past the previous high of $3.40 to around $3.66 in July 2025. A recent correction is now testing the upper boundary of the long-term triangle again. The key question is whether the former resistance line has turned into support.

The chart cited $1.40 to $1.70 as an adjacent support zone. If prices settle in that range, the long-term breakout structure could be maintained. If the earlier breakout line gives way, the long-term retest setup could weaken and the rising lower boundary of the old triangle could become important again.

On the upside, $3 to $3.50 was cited as the next key resistance zone. That range aligns with a prior peak area formed in the previous upswing. For the market, whether support holds on the downside and whether the resistance zone can be broken again in a rebound are variables that could shape the next move.

Momentum indicators showed some improvement. Weekly relative strength index (RSI) was presented at 56.98, with the RSI moving average at 43.62. RSI rebounded from around the 30 level and moved back above 50, but it has yet to reach 70, typically seen as an overbought threshold.

Even so, a chart structure similar to the past does not guarantee gains of the same magnitude. The price levels the market needs to check on the current chart narrow to three. They are the $1.40 to $1.70 retest zone, the earlier downward trendline below it, and resistance at $3 to $3.50 above. XRP's long-term direction has become more likely to hinge on how it reacts in these areas.