XRP is staying within a $1.45 to $1.65 range, and short-term moves do not carry much meaning until it breaks out of that band, an analysis showed.

On Sept. 30, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that analyst EGRAG (이그랙) sees XRP's next direction as depending on which breaks first: the $1.45 support line or the $1.65 resistance line.

In a post on X, formerly Twitter, EGRAG said XRP is trapped in a narrow range. XRP is currently around $1.50, near the lower end of his stated band. He set $1.45 as support and $1.65 as resistance, and said the next direction will be confirmed only after a clear move outside that zone.

XRP has recently failed to sustain momentum even after attempts to break higher. Last month it rose to $1.70 and quickly slid below $1.30, and in September it climbed to $1.68 before falling back to around $1.50. The chart also showed two sharp surges near $1.65, but neither breakout held.

That has added to fatigue among holders who had expected a short-term spike. EGRAG said the focus should be on the larger price trend rather than reacting to each small move, adding that there is no basis to change the current view as long as XRP stays between $1.45 and $1.65.

By price level, $1.4997 was presented as the area currently acting as support. To strengthen a rebound, it would need to clear $1.5545 and $1.5952, and a key resistance level was put at $1.6583. That level almost matches the $1.65 upper boundary cited by EGRAG.

He also left room for downside risk. EGRAG's chart shows an ABC correction pattern along with price action moving within a larger declining channel. If the C wave unfolds, the downside target levels were presented as $1.40, $1.37, $1.32, $1.28 and $1.22.

From the perspective of long-term investors, he viewed the current zone as a chance to buy in tranches, but drew a line against interpreting it as the start of a new bull market. He said he would consider additional purchases if XRP falls below $1.30, indicating he would use a deeper correction as a buying opportunity as well.

Ultimately, market focus is shifting from short-term volatility to whether the range breaks. If XRP settles above $1.65, recovery signals could strengthen, but if it drops below $1.45, a test of lower support could begin in earnest. In the current zone, the flow is expected to continue toward watching for a structural change itself rather than making buy-or-sell decisions before direction is confirmed.

#XRP - $1.45–$1.65: EVERYTHING ELSE IS NOISE : Honestly, I see #XRP trapped inside a micro range within the MACRO structure: $1.45 - Range Low $1.65 - Range High Until we get a confirmed close outside either boundary, we are doing NOTHING but ranging. For… pic.twitter.com/vudAoFucQY