XRP has broken above a downtrend channel that held prices down for about a year, but the weekly Ichimoku cloud has emerged as the next key resistance.

On Sept. 30 local time, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that XRP's medium-term chart structure has improved, but it is still too early to say the long-term trend has turned bullish.

The area drawing the most attention is the weekly cloud. XRP is already above the Ichimoku conversion line and base line, and both lines are acting as support at $1.3426. XRP has kept that level as support since rebounding in August 2026.

Topside resistance remains. The weekly cloud is formed above XRP in red, and leading span B is at $2.0191. To enter an uptrend phase, XRP must first break above the lower edge of the cloud. It must then post a weekly close above $2.0191 for a meaningful shift in the Ichimoku structure.

XRP surged as much as 53 percent in August and broke above the upper boundary of a downtrend channel that had run since July 2025. The channel produced a pattern of lower highs and lower lows for about a year. XRP then pulled back in September, but it retested the former channel top from above and held as support. That raises technical credibility beyond a temporary rebound.

Buying interest still has the upper hand. In the directional movement index, +DI, which signals buying pressure, is above -DI, which signals selling pressure, but both indicators have been gradually falling since the August peak. With -DI also declining, the move is seen less as strengthening selling than as a slowdown in the prior uptrend.

The average directional index, which measures trend strength, has also declined to 28.46. That suggests the strong rise in August has cooled and the market has entered a pause. XRP's next move will hinge on whether it trades in a range for a while and then forms the next trend.

The key support for now is $1.3426. The conversion and base lines overlap there, and the former downtrend channel top is also providing support. If XRP continues to fall below that level, the credibility of the breakout could weaken. If it breaks above the lower edge of the cloud and clears $2.0191, that is expected to serve as a benchmark for judging whether the medium-term rebound can lead to a long-term trend reversal.