[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] Standard Chartered forecast that Ethena's USDe stablecoin supply will reach $40 billion by the end of 2028. It set a $2 target price for Ethena's ENA token at the same point.

Cointelegraph reported on Sept. 30 that Standard Chartered made the forecast in a report that covered ENA for the first time. The $2 target is about seven times the report's reference price of $0.28.

Standard Chartered focused in particular on Ethena's diversification of revenue sources. As returns on its existing basis trade combining spot holdings and perpetual futures short positions fell, Ethena expanded revenue sources to DeFi, institutional lending, real-world assets (RWA) and basis trades linked to stocks and commodities. Standard Chartered analysed that the blended yield of these asset classes is currently about 5.2 percent and will support an expansion of USDe supply.

It also cited growth in the tokenised asset market as a positive factor. Standard Chartered forecast the market, currently worth about $350 billion, will expand to $4 trillion by the end of 2028. It said this would diversify the assets Ethena can use to generate revenue.

A more important variable in valuing ENA is buybacks. Ethena governance approved a fee switch proposal in early September, requiring 95 percent of net revenue from business segments to be used for ENA buybacks once USDe supply reaches a certain threshold. Ethena estimated that if USDe supply reaches $25 billion, ENA buybacks worth $375 million a year would be possible, assuming a total protocol yield of 6 percent and a net revenue take rate of 25 percent.

Standard Chartered said that if USDe reaches $40 billion and ENA remains around current levels, annual buybacks could reach about 23 percent of ENA's circulating market capitalisation. It judged that such a ratio would not be sustainable. It said as ENA rises, buybacks would adjust to a lower share of market capitalisation.

It cited Uniswap's UNI as a comparison. Standard Chartered said UNI's annualised buyback ratio stabilised at 3 to 4 percent after the token price rose. It calculated that ENA could also follow a structure in which USDe expansion and buybacks push up the price.

Standard Chartered forecast ENA could post a higher rate of increase than bitcoin and ether through 2028. It set target prices over the same period at $300,000 for bitcoin and $18,000 for ether. It said the key will be whether USDe supply expands and Ethena diversifies revenue sources as forecast, and how much buybacks affect ENA supply and demand.

It said the core of the forecast is that it ties Ethena's growth drivers not to simple crypto market returns but to revenue diversification and a buyback structure. It also showed that USDe supply expansion and ENA valuation are intertwined within the same structure.