[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] Bitcoin rose about 43.5 percent in the third quarter of 2026, raising the likelihood it will post the second-highest third-quarter return on record.

On Sept. 27 local time, blockchain outlet U.Today reported the figure would be the second-highest after an 80.41 percent rise in the third quarter of 2017.

Bitcoin gained about 43.5 percent from July to September. That already tops the previous second-place third-quarter increase of 40.6 percent in 2013. Bitcoin is trading around $84,100.

The rebound contrasts with a weak first half. Bitcoin fell 22.2 percent in the first quarter and dropped 14.09 percent in the second. If the third quarter ends with a 43.5 percent gain, it will snap two straight quarters of declines.

The third-quarter performance is drawing attention because it differs from Bitcoin’s typical pattern. CoinGlass data show Bitcoin’s average third-quarter return is 8.73 percent and the median is 2.29 percent. Of 14 third quarters tallied, 8 ended higher. That means the third quarter has generally not been a strong period.

Recent years also show third-quarter returns were mostly limited. Bitcoin rose 25.01 percent in the third quarter of 2021, 17.97 percent in the third quarter of 2020 and 6.31 percent in the third quarter of 2025, while the third-quarter gain in 2024 was less than 1 percent. By contrast, it fell 39.74 percent in the third quarter of 2014 and declined 22.86 percent in 2019 and 11.54 percent in 2023. Compared with those trends, this year’s third-quarter rise is an unusual level well above the 8.73 percent average.

Market focus is naturally shifting to the fourth quarter. CoinGlass figures show Bitcoin’s average fourth-quarter return is 77.07 percent, the highest of the four quarters. The median is also strong at 47.73 percent. Of 13 completed fourth quarters, 8 ended higher.

Large year-end rallies in the past were also concentrated in the fourth quarter. Bitcoin surged 479.59 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013, 215.07 percent in 2017 and 168.02 percent in 2020. It rose 81.24 percent in 2015 and 58.17 percent in 2016. Still, the fourth quarter has not always been strong. Bitcoin fell 42.16 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 and dropped 23.07 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025. It also logged fourth-quarter losses in 2014, 2019 and 2022.

As a result, the Bitcoin market this year has come to confirm two trends at once. One is that a strong third-quarter rebound followed first-half weakness. The other is that it is heading into a fourth quarter that has typically posted high returns. Still, even if historical data show a high fourth-quarter average, gains have not been guaranteed every time, so it needs further confirmation whether the third-quarter rebound will extend through year-end.

The latest figure is meaningful in that Bitcoin has shown unusual resilience in the third quarter, a period seen as relatively weak. At the same time, the fact that fourth-quarter volatility was greater in past data is becoming a key benchmark for gauging the next moves.

#BTC is about to close its 2nd best Q3 ever. And Q4 is historically best-performing quarter. pic.twitter.com/z3Zo7HVknE