[Digital Today reporter Yoonseo Lee] XRP has posted net outflows from Binance despite a recent correction, suggesting the amount immediately available for selling on the exchange has decreased.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Sept. 22 (local time) that Binance’s XRP holdings did not increase as much despite large inflows into whale wallets.

XRP rose to $1.57 on Sept. 22 before pulling back to around $1.51, then regained the $1.57 level on Sept. 23. The trading range at the time was $1.5062 to $1.5398. The short-term pullback alone could make the uptrend look weaker, but exchange inflow and outflow data showed a different pattern.

On Binance, XRP inflows fell 20.37 percent and outflows dropped 25.96 percent. With outflows declining by more, Binance posted net outflows of about 102,912 XRP. XRP left on an exchange is available for immediate trading and selling, so when holders move XRP to personal wallets, supply that can be absorbed right away in the market decreases.

This pattern suggests that some holders are choosing to move rather than sell during the recent price rebound. The fact that exchange reserves fell while prices rose is also drawing market attention.

In contrast, whale money flowing into exchanges jumped. An Arab Chain CryptoQuant analyst noted that about 1.6 billion XRP moved from large wallets into Binance over the past 30 days. That was the highest cumulative total since March, meaning whale activity that weakened from May to July has picked up again.

Still, it is difficult to say the whale inflows immediately led to large-scale selling. Binance’s weekly XRP reserves were tallied at 2,630,628,140 XRP. That was only 0.22 percent above the quarterly baseline and 0.34 percent higher than the previous week. With the increase in exchange balances small compared with the size of inflows from large wallets, the market is putting more weight on fund turnover and position reshuffling than on an expansion in sell supply.

Market capitalisation trends were also far from an extreme bearish signal. Fully diluted market value, calculated based on total supply, expanded during the rally from about $103.0 billion to above $150.0 billion, then fell to about $138.97 billion. Market value based on circulating supply is close to about $94.0 billion.

Uncertainties remain. Over the past 8 years, XRP’s September returns moved in the opposite direction from August in 7 of those years. In the 2 cases when August ended higher, September fell 14 percent and 19.6 percent, respectively. This year XRP rose 30 percent in August, its strongest August performance since 2021. Seasonality alone does not determine the next direction, but it could become a burden as September draws to a close.

On the upside, $1.55 was presented as a key resistance level. A clear break above it could open the way to $1.68. On the downside, buyers need to hold the $1.4860 support zone to maintain the current trend.

The key point in this move is that exchange reserves barely increased even as whale inflows grew. It is an example showing that the amount actually left on an exchange and net flows matter more than simple inflow size.