A forecast has emerged that annual trading volume in prediction markets will reach $10 trillion in 2035.

According to blockchain outlet Decrypto on Sept. 22 local time, global investment bank Bernstein estimates prediction-market trading volume at $410 billion this year and sees it expanding to $10 trillion by 2035.

Bernstein in April projected prediction-market trading volume would rise to $1 trillion in 2030 from $51 billion in 2025. This time, it extended the forecast horizon to 2035 and put expected trading volume at $10 trillion. Analysts projected a compound annual growth rate of about 70 percent through 2035.

Market trading is already rising quickly. Total industry trading volume increased to about $300 billion in the first eight months of this year from about $50 billion for all of 2025.

A key change is a shift from sports-focused activity to financial-asset-focused activity. Bernstein saw sports contracts falling to 38 percent in 2035 from 61 percent in 2025, while contracts tied to financial assets grouping cryptocurrencies, stocks and commodities rise to 49 percent from 12 percent over the same period to become the largest category.

Bernstein saw new products supporting that trend. Analysts expected the emergence of KPI markets that trade single corporate indicators such as output, delivery performance and subscriber growth. They added that perpetual futures are expanding beyond cryptocurrencies to commodities and single-stock perpetual futures.

Platform trends also showed the expansion of financial contracts. On Kalshi, the share of cryptocurrency-related trading jumped to about 20 percent in August from less than 5 percent in January. Commodities trading rose to about $590 million so far in 2026 from less than $2 million for all of 2025, including $410 million in August alone. Kalshi's industry share rose to about 60 percent now from 35 percent a year earlier.

Expectations for institutional inflows remain. In its earlier outlook, Bernstein said an institution-led market would form as investors try to access economic, corporate and political contracts in more direct and granular ways. It also pointed to clearer federal-level regulation, blockchain-based tokenisation and integration with crypto markets as foundations for expanding global liquidity and long-tail event markets.

U.S. regulation remains a variable. Bernstein said court rulings are split on whether sports prediction markets are derivatives subject to federal regulation or gambling regulated at the state level, making it difficult to achieve clear regulatory frameworks before 2027 or 2028. Even with that uncertainty, the industry is likely to reach $410 billion in trading volume in 2026, and Bernstein no longer sees that figure as a ceiling but as a floor.

Against that backdrop, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev (블라드 테네프) said in a CNBC interview, "We're already seeing other categories like crypto take up a disproportionately larger share," adding, "Within a few years, sports will actually become a minority share." Revenue from Robinhood's event-contract business rose tenfold to $156 million in the second quarter of 2026. That adds weight to the view that prediction markets could shift from a peripheral sports-betting market to financial-trading infrastructure.

The latest outlook shows in figures that prediction markets are shifting their centre of gravity from sports to financial-asset contracts. It means that even with regulatory uncertainty remaining, the market's growth axis has become clear as trading structures and product line-ups expand quickly.