An analysis said Solana has entered the final compression phase of a five-year cup-and-handle pattern.

On Sept. 21 local time, blockchain outlet U.Today reported that crypto analyst Peter Brandt (피터 브란트) assessed Solana as approaching an important inflection point that could determine its long-term price path.

The analysis interprets Solana's recent five-year moves as a single cup-and-handle structure. The left side of the cup began at the all-time high in 2021. During the crypto winter in late 2022, the price fell to around $9, forming a bottom. The outline of the cup was completed as it recovered the 2024 high, followed by about 2 years of sideways trading that is forming the handle, it said.

Technical indicators also pointed to a phase of shrinking volatility. The average true range (ATR) was 17.51, indicating the price range is gradually narrowing. The average directional index (ADX) was 20.10, below 25, showing a clear trend has not yet formed. Brandt described this as Solana being compressed like a spring.

Brandt presented around $240, the upper boundary of the long-term pattern, as a first hurdle. Reaching this level alone would not confirm a breakout, he said, calling it a stage of retesting the top of the cup.

The zone for confirming a sustained rise is $240 to $260. A clear break above this area followed by a hold is needed to judge it as an upside breakout of the pattern formed over 5 years. Conversely, $80 to $85 was presented as a lower zone that would determine the pattern's validity. He warned that dropping below it could damage the handle structure and return it to a long-term downtrend.

Brandt mentioned that in traditional markets, particularly the gold market, there have been cases where similar multi-year sideways patterns led to strong upward cycles. But he said such structures are extremely rare in crypto charts and called for a cautious approach.

A long-term target was also presented on the premise of an upside breakout. On a logarithmic chart, the price ratio between $9 at the bottom of the cup and $240 at the top is about 26.6 times. Applying this ratio to the breakout price would theoretically produce a target in the several-thousand-dollar range, he calculated. But he said this is a long-term post-breakout scenario and does not mean a rise is confirmed at the current stage.

Ultimately, the key is which direction the compressed price action breaks. Whether it breaks and holds $240 to $260, and whether it holds support at $80 to $85, is expected to be the core benchmark for judging Solana's long-term pattern.

This is a very significant possible longer term look at $SOL pic.twitter.com/Wd3DHSlEiu