[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] An analysis said large airdrops could spur early inflows in the next cryptocurrency bull market. It said tokens paid directly to users could flow back into markets and fuel buying as liquidity thins late in a bear market.

On Sept. 16 (local time), blockchain media outlet The Defiant cited Uniswap, Jito and Hyperliquid as examples and said large-scale airdrops could supply new liquidity to the crypto ecosystem.

A representative case is Uniswap. In September 2020, Uniswap distributed about $450 million worth of UNI to users. Over the next about 14 months, total cryptocurrency market capitalisation rose from about $350 billion to about $3 trillion, and total value locked in decentralised finance climbed from $10 billion to close to $180 billion. The report noted, however, that several factors also drove that bull market, including monetary easing in response to COVID-19 and growth in the DeFi market.

The impact of an airdrop appears as distributed tokens circulate back into the market. Some recipients sell, while others hold or put funds into the ecosystem to earn additional rewards. The analysis said this process can bring new money into on-chain markets.

Jito and Hyperliquid were also cited as similar cases. After Jito’s JTO airdrop in December 2023, rewarded funds flowed back into the Solana ecosystem, and in November 2024 Hyperliquid distributed 31 percent of total HYPE supply to early users. Hyperliquid, in particular, faced a relatively smaller overhang from venture capital allocations, and buybacks using fees supported downside demand.

The current market environment is also drawing attention to the analysis. Bitcoin rose to $126,210 in October last year, then fell about 52 percent to around $60,000 in early February this year, and has recently traded around $76,000. The market is split between views that a final bottom has yet to appear and that the February low has already passed.

Potential candidates for future large airdrops include Polymarket, Coinbase’s Base and decentralised derivatives exchanges where a token launch is being discussed. Polymarket has confirmed plans to issue a POLY token, but the possibility that it will prioritise an initial public offering after a large ICE investment is a variable. Base has also considered issuing a token, but no specific timetable has been set.

Circle’s ARC is also being discussed as a possibility. There is still no airdrop plan, but attention is focused on the fact that the ecosystem allocation is set at 60 percent of the total.

Whether large airdrops will actually act as a catalyst for a bull market remains uncertain. The effect could be limited if leading projects delay distributions or choose other routes such as IPOs. If a market recovery coincides with large airdrops, funds distributed to users could flow back into on-chain ecosystems and help increase early bull-market liquidity.