An analysis says Bitcoin is nearing 365 days without setting a new all-time high (ATH).

CoinPost, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Sept. 14, local time, that crypto analyst Darkfost said on Sept. 13 that Bitcoin will soon reach one year without surpassing its ATH.

The key point is that a different flow from past halving cycles appears to be emerging. Darkfost said past cycles typically saw ATH updates soon after a halving, but that pattern appears to be wobbling this time. He mentioned that Bitcoin is 'soon reaching 365 days without updating its ATH' and raised the possibility of a shift in the cycle structure.

The analysis used data from CryptoQuant and Axel Adler Jr (액셀 애들러 주니어). Based on that material, Darkfost estimated the next halving around April 2028. It suggests that how the pace and interval of new market peaks change in this cycle is becoming a more important point to watch than the halving itself.

Data he presented show a trend of shorter periods from a cycle peak to the next ATH. It took 1,180 days from 2014 to 2017, 1,094 days from 2017 to 2020, and 849 days from 2021 to 2024. Darkfost described the trend as 'shortening as cycles progress.'

That has led to expectations that the pace of new ATHs could accelerate in the current cycle as well. Darkfost said the update pace could speed up again if the same trend continues. For the market, the structure of the interval to the next peak compared with prior cycles is becoming more important than the fact that the period without a new ATH is lengthening.

He also pointed to limits of the analysis. The calculation is based on data from the most recent 3 cycles, and it cannot be taken as certain that the four-year cycle theory will continue in the same way. Darkfost said there is no guarantee that past patterns will repeat in this cycle.

Against that backdrop, the Bitcoin market appears to be taking in two signals at once. One is that delays in breaking the record high are lengthening. The other is that, over the long term, the time to break back above a prior peak has been getting shorter. As a result, regardless of the 2028 halving estimate, attention is likely to focus more on whether this cycle follows the same structure as in the past.