[DigitalToday intern reporter Seung-a Yoo] The International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its 2026 oil supply outlook again. The timing for a full recovery of supply in the Gulf region was also pushed back to 2027, increasing uncertainty for improving funding conditions in the bitcoin market tied to stabilising energy prices.

On Sept. 13 (local time), blockchain media outlet CryptoSlate reported that the IEA said in a report on Sept. 11 it expects global average crude oil supply this year to be 100.7 million barrels per day. That is 1.3 million barrels per day lower than its Aug. 12 forecast of 102.0 million barrels per day. The IEA expected a full recovery of Gulf-region supply to be delayed until 2027.

The demand outlook also worsened. The IEA expected global oil consumption in 2026 to fall by 2.5 million barrels per day from 2025. That is a larger decline by 940,000 barrels per day than its August forecast. Lower oil consumption could ease supply-shortage pressure, but inventory flows still showed tightness in the physical market.

The IEA estimated confirmed global oil inventories fell by 95 million barrels in August. The cumulative decline since February this year totals 507 million barrels. That means slowing demand alone is not resolving the oil market's supply shortage.

Supply flows also showed some signs of improvement. The IEA explained that the scale of crude export losses narrowed as volumes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz increased and transits through the strait continued under U.S. military escort. But exports of refined products and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the Gulf region were still nearly 60 percent lower in August than in February. The recovery is under way, but the pace differs by product and region.

What bitcoin investors are watching is not oil prices themselves but inflation and the interest-rate path. For market participants who borrow dollars to hold bitcoin, prolonged pressure from energy prices could weaken expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and delay improvements in funding conditions. The IEA and related data do not directly measure changes in bitcoin borrowing rates.

Inflation expectations also emerged as a variable. In the University of Michigan's preliminary September survey, one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.6 percent from 4.0 percent in August. Long-term inflation expectations rose to 3.4 percent from 3.3 percent. The rise in long-term inflation expectations was not large, but one-year inflation expectations marked the highest level since June this year.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller (크리스토퍼 월러) said in a speech on Sept. 3 that a spread of higher energy prices into broader prices for goods and services "has not been seen so far". He also cited as a risk factor a situation in which energy prices rise again and long-term inflation expectations increase.

Waller said the current rate level could be maintained if inflation continues to improve toward the 2 percent target, but rate hikes could be considered if August inflation reverses the improving trend. It was his conditional assessment ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Sept. 15-16.

Ultimately, market attention is focused on whether weaker oil demand and a partial recovery in supply can actually reduce inflation pressure. If the supply recovery continues and the pass-through of energy prices to inflation is limited, expectations for easing funding conditions could revive. If pressure from oil prices persists, relief in financing costs expected by bitcoin leveraged investors could be delayed.

A decline in oil demand alone is unlikely to provide relief for the bitcoin market. With falling inventories, delayed supply recovery and the possibility of rising inflation expectations overlapping, the market is watching more closely not oil prices themselves but how oil prices may affect the future path of interest rates.