Bitcoin is no longer functioning as an independent “digital gold” asset and is instead moving in tandem with the U.S. stock market, prompting a warning it could be pushed down to around $10,000 if the S&P 500 undergoes a 20 percent correction.

On Sept. 13 (local time), blockchain outlet U.Today reported that Mike McGlone (마이크 맥글론), chief macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, said in a recent analysis that signals are emerging that point to downside risk for bitcoin. In related coverage, McGlone cited bitcoin’s strong linkage with U.S. equities and the possibility of U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes as key risk factors.

McGlone presented three broadly bearish signals. First, bitcoin’s rebound was capped at $76,746, failing to break above the psychological resistance level of $80,000.

The rate environment was also cited as a burden. One-year federal funds rate futures (FF13-FF1) reflect additional Fed rate hikes ahead, with the scale put at about 70 basis points. The analysis said that if expectations for rate hikes grow, liquidity flowing into speculative asset markets could shrink.

High valuations in the U.S. stock market are also a risk factor. The S&P 500 has risen to levels well above its 200-week moving average, increasing the likelihood of large-scale profit-taking by institutional investors.

McGlone pointed in particular to bitcoin becoming overly dependent on the stock market. He assessed that bitcoin no longer functions as a defensive asset. Over the past five years, bitcoin’s returns were similar to the S&P 500, but its volatility was about three times higher, he argued.

From a portfolio perspective, the analysis said bitcoin’s “safe-haven asset” character has also weakened as risk-adjusted return efficiency has declined. Bitcoin was a unique investment vehicle when it emerged in 2009, but many altcoins later appeared, raising overall market risk exposure and beta, McGlone explained. As a result, the analysis said bitcoin has moved more closely with the trend in technology stocks and has become more vulnerable to shocks on Wall Street.

Strong linkage with U.S. equities could expose bitcoin to broader market shocks. McGlone forecast that if the S&P 500 enters a correction and falls 20 percent, bitcoin could drop to around $10,000, a level he has presented as a long-term fundamental axis. This is a conditional scenario based on a 20 percent S&P 500 correction.

Conversely, for bitcoin to invalidate this scenario, it would need to show it can rise independently even when the stock market is falling, McGlone concluded. The analysis said the current macroeconomic environment supports the likelihood that bitcoin will move in step with U.S. equities rather than move independently.

Ultimately, market attention is focused on whether bitcoin will move together with the stock market during any future equity correction or regain an independent price path. The analysis said that if expectations of rate hikes, high equity valuations and a strong correlation with the stock market persist at the same time, it could be difficult for bitcoin to be viewed as an independent safe-haven asset.