[Digital Today reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] Bitcoin posted its first weekly close above $80,000 since May, but an analysis said it is too early to judge that it has established the level as a new support line. U.S. inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and whether the derivatives market is overheating are cited as key variables that will determine the next price direction.

On Sept. 7 (local time), blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph reported that attention in the cryptocurrency market this week is focused on the U.S. August consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI), and the Fed meeting to be held on Sept. 16.

The biggest variable is the Fed’s September rate path. Recent U.S. jobs data came in stronger than expected, raising worries that the Fed may have less need to ease monetary policy right away. U.S. nonfarm employment in August rose by 162,000, and the previous estimate was also revised up from 56,000.

As the labour market proved more resilient than expected, the market’s rate outlook also moved somewhat more hawkish. CME Group’s FedWatch shows the market pricing a 58.4 percent chance of a 0.25 percentage point rise in the policy rate at the September meeting.

Views within the Fed are also mixed. Kevin Warsh said at last month’s Jackson Hole symposium that recent inflation data alone do not provide sufficient grounds to reassess monetary policy. Christopher Waller, in contrast, supported pausing rate hikes. U.S. President Donald Trump is pressing the Fed to cut rates, saying high rates are unfavourable to the U.S. economy.

In the stock market, some views said strong jobs data do not necessarily need to be seen as negative. Mosaic Asset Company assessed that the market’s immediate reaction to the jobs report focused on the rate outlook, but that a resilient economy could also be positive for corporate earnings.

Still, September is traditionally a period when U.S. stocks show weakness, and the possibility was also raised that volatility could widen in the fourth quarter ahead of the November midterm elections.

Japan’s monetary policy and moves in the yen could also be variables for bitcoin. Japan’s Ministry of Finance said Japan’s foreign exchange reserves fell by $79.57 billion from the end of July. This is seen as the effect of record yen-buying intervention. After the intervention, the yen strengthened to around 155 yen per dollar and held that level in Asian trading.

There was also a view that Japan could sell U.S. Treasuries for further foreign exchange market intervention. If Japan’s bond sales and shifts in monetary policy affect global liquidity, that could also affect bitcoin, a risk asset.

Expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike in September have also risen. Polymarket is pricing a 98 percent chance of a 0.25 percentage point increase. Changes in Japan’s interest rates can affect the yen carry trade and global liquidity flows, making them a key variable for the cryptocurrency market as well.

Looking at bitcoin’s supply-demand structure, this rebound still appears to be driven more by the derivatives market than by spot. CryptoQuant said that when bitcoin moved back above $82,000 on Sept. 3, total open interest rose by $2.3 billion, or about 9.24 percent, to $27.53 billion from $25.2 billion. With prices and open interest rising at the same time, it was analysed as a rapid inflow of new derivatives positions.

The issue is spot demand. CryptoQuant pointed out that while there was some spot and on-chain participation in the recent rise, the main driver of the uptrend was derivatives. It said spot demand is not sufficiently supporting prices as futures demand pushes them higher.

CryptoQuant warned that a rally without spot demand following through is difficult to sustain. Another burden is that profit-taking supply has increased as investors recently moved back into unrealised gains.

Whether bitcoin can settle above $80,000 also remains uncertain. Coinglass said there is thick sell liquidity stacked near $80,560 if the bitcoin price reaches that area. Glassnode analysed that large liquidation volumes are concentrated in the $83,000 to $86,000 range and could act as resistance in any further rise.

In contrast, longer-term technical signals also showed positive changes. With this week’s close, bitcoin generated a buy signal on the weekly Supertrend indicator for the first time since November 2025. Earlier in August, the 50-week exponential moving average also recovered for the first time since late 2025.

Ultimately, whether bitcoin can make $80,000 a new support level depends on U.S. inflation data to be released this week, the Fed’s rate path and whether spot demand recovers. Technically, signals are emerging that it is moving away from weakness, but it is a burden that the current uptrend relies heavily on derivatives positions. More than the breakout above $80,000 itself, whether spot buying actually flows in at this price range is expected to determine whether the next bull market can be sustained.