Attention is on whether a new iPhone model will again spur South Korea's mobile number-porting market, which was heated up by Samsung Electronics' Galaxy Z8 series. With porting already rising last month on the back of the Galaxy launch, the release of the iPhone 18 this month is expected to sharpen competition among the three mobile carriers for subscribers.

Apple will hold a product launch event on Sept. 9 local time at Apple Park in Cupertino, California. A detailed lineup has not been disclosed, but the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max and the first foldable iPhone are expected to be unveiled. South Korea is likely to be included in the first wave of iPhone 18 launches. SK Telecom, KT and LG Uplus have begun preparing promotions to coincide with the release.

◆ 680,346 number ports in August...Galaxy Z8 delivers a clear effect

Industry attention is focused on the impact the new iPhone model will have on the number-porting market. According to the Korea Telecommunications Operators Association (KTOA), the number of mobile number ports in August was 680,346, up 44,985, or 7.1 percent, from 635,361 in July. It also rose 35,728, or 5.5 percent, from the same month a year earlier.

The rise in August porting is attributed to the Galaxy Z8 series, released on Aug. 7. The Galaxy Z Fold8 Ultra, Fold8 and Flip8 recorded 1.44 million units in domestic preorders. That surpassed the 1.38 million set by the Galaxy Note10 in 2019, the highest preorder figure ever for a Galaxy phone. The industry broadly sees subscriber movement as having increased as carriers' marketing competition also intensified.

If the iPhone 18 series is released in South Korea, the number-porting market is likely to move again. The iPhone has a high share of young users and early adopters, and replacement demand tends to concentrate at launch. In a Korea Gallup survey of 1,675 smartphone users aged 13 and above this year, the overall iPhone usage rate was 19 percent, below Galaxy at 81 percent. Among people in their 20s, iPhone usage was 53 percent, higher than Galaxy at 47 percent. Among women in their 20s, iPhone usage reached 67 percent. That indicates the iPhone has strong influence among younger users who are sensitive to new models and marketing.

High brand loyalty does not necessarily translate directly into number porting. An industry official said, "If an existing iPhone user buys a new iPhone and keeps the same carrier, it only results in a device upgrade," adding, "The high retail price is also a factor to consider."

◆ Will the iPhone 18 effect grow...support subsidy competition in focus

Ultimately, the key variable determining actual porting volumes is how aggressively the three carriers and their distribution networks offer benefits tied to the new launch. As sales incentives for iPhone 17 inventory increased around so-called 'hot spots', 'chabi phones' also emerged that provide cash for number porting. The official said subsidies that had been concentrated on iPhone 17 models in September could shift to the iPhone 18.

The effect of the new model was also reflected immediately in the porting market when the iPhone 17 was released. On Sept. 19 last year, the day the iPhone 17 was officially released, 30,949 number ports were made in a single day. Including 17,261 the next day, about 48,200 number ports occurred over two days. Replacement demand that had waited for the launch surged as soon as it became available.

At the time, the three carriers set common support subsidies of up to 450,000 won for the iPhone 17 Pro and Air. With additional support subsidies, the total reached up to 517,500 won. After the abolition last year of the Mobile Device Distribution Improvement Act, carriers were no longer required to disclose support subsidies, and the cap on additional support subsidies by retailers was removed. That increased room to offer more benefits to number-porting customers.

A new iPhone model can also be a turning point that affects the subscriber landscape in the second half. SK Telecom, which is recovering from the fallout of a SIM hacking incident last year, recorded net gains in number porting in both July and August. LG Uplus secured the most subscribers during the Galaxy Z8 launch period. KT, which posted net losses for two straight months over the same period, may step up efforts to defend and attract subscribers with the iPhone launch as a catalyst.

Variables include Apple's release strategy and supply volume. Apple is expected to adopt a strategy of first releasing the Pro lineup and the first foldable iPhone this year, while splitting the timing by pushing the base iPhone 18 to the first half of next year. If the launch focuses on higher-priced products, overall replacement demand could be limited. If Apple's first foldable product draws new demand, the situation changes. If Apple enters the foldable market right after the Galaxy Z8 boosted August porting, competition among the three carriers to secure subscribers around premium smartphones could continue.

An industry official said, "If a new iPhone model comes out after the Galaxy Z8 launch, subscriber acquisition competition is likely to continue into the second half," adding, "In particular, demand for a foldable iPhone and carrier-by-carrier subsidies will likely shape market sentiment."