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U.S. recession risk near 50 percent; can bitcoin repeat 2020 rebound?

As concerns about a U.S. recession grow, attention is turning to whether bitcoin can stage a rebound similar to 2020. Data cited by CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr puts recession odds near 50 percent. Moody’s Analytics lifted its 12-month probability to 48.6 percent and Goldman Sachs raised its estimate to 30 percent. Kalshi shows 36 percent. Analysts also cite a U.S.-Iran war and a surge in oil prices as key drivers.