[Digital Today reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] Binance’s XRP holdings have fallen to their lowest level since February 2024. About 500 million XRP has left Binance over the past year. As prices rise and exchange holdings fall at the same time, attention is focusing on the possibility of XRP accumulation.

According to blockchain media outlet Decrypt on Sept. 2 (local time), CryptoQuant contributor Darkpost said Binance’s average monthly XRP reserves fell from about 3.1 billion XRP in November last year to about 2.6 billion XRP now. That amounts to a decline of about 500 million XRP in less than a year. Binance’s average monthly XRP reserves are now at their lowest since February 2024.

What stands out is that XRP’s price and Binance’s holdings moved in different directions. XRP has risen about 30 percent over the past month, but the amount of XRP remaining on Binance fell over the same period. In general, declining exchange holdings can be interpreted as investors moving assets from exchange wallets, where they can be sold immediately, to private wallets or wallets for long-term storage.

The pattern continued even as XRP went through a steep correction. XRP fell about 63 percent from a high of $3.66 to $1.35, but XRP withdrawals on Binance continued during that period. Darkpost put more weight on the view that at least some investors are accumulating XRP, given the current reserve level.

Still, a decline in exchange holdings cannot be immediately deemed long-term accumulation. XRP may have moved from Binance to other exchanges, institutions or custody services. Asset transfers between Binance’s internal wallets could also have affected the decline in reserves. Balances can also change as an exchange reallocates XRP to meet customer demand or adjusts the overall composition of its reserves, the report said.

Spot XRP ETFs are also cited as a key variable. Darkpost pointed to spot XRP ETFs launched in November to December last year as another reason for the decline in Binance’s XRP reserves. ETF issuers may have bought XRP to secure exposure to the product’s underlying asset, potentially moving supply from exchanges to outside exchanges.

The timing also lines up. The decline in Binance’s XRP reserves began in earnest around November last year, when spot XRP ETFs were launched. That raises the possibility that institutional demand via ETFs and accumulation by existing investors acted at the same time, reducing XRP held on exchanges.

Still, the data requires caution in interpretation because it is based on average monthly reserves rather than movements by individual wallets.

According to Darkpost, XRP reserves tended to rise during past rebound phases and then fall again when prices pulled back. Because the nature of monthly average indicators can create a time lag with actual price movements or fund flows at individual exchanges, it is difficult to judge short-term price direction based on this figure alone.

Even so, it is notable that Binance’s XRP reserve decline has continued for an extended period. If the phenomenon of declining XRP on exchanges persists while prices rise, it could be interpreted as a drop in the supply of XRP available for immediate selling in the market. That is why exchange holdings could emerge as an important indicator when assessing XRP prices and supply-demand conditions going forward.

A key variable ahead is how much XRP spot ETFs actually absorb from the market. At the same time, it is also necessary to confirm whether the supply that left Binance moved to other exchanges or to institutional and custody wallets or private wallets.

Ultimately, Binance’s decline in XRP holdings is being assessed as more than a simple change in exchange balances, and as a signal of recent supply-demand changes in the XRP market. Still, it is expected that movements among exchanges and ETF holdings must also be checked to more accurately determine actual net outflows and whether long-term accumulation is taking place.