Bitcoin slipped to around $78,000, making whether it can hold $77,000 a key variable that could determine the short-term direction.

On Aug. 29, local time, blockchain media outlet CryptoSlate reported that the market is gauging direction between support at $77,000 and resistance at $80,000.

If Bitcoin clearly falls below $77,000, the next downside could open toward the mid-$75,000s. If it regains $80,000, it could retest $81,300, the Aug. 28 high, and then potentially move toward the $82,000 to $83,000 range.

The pullback came after an intraday attempt to break above $81,000 on Aug. 28 failed. After Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks, the market-implied probability of a September rate hike rose to about 55 percent from about 40 percent. Warsh said the Fed still has work to do if inflation does not return to target. The $80,000 level, briefly reclaimed, turned back into resistance.

There was also a shift in weekend flow conditions. On Aug. 29, about 81,700 BTC of bitcoin options expired on Deribit. The notional value was about $6.44 billion. The put-to-call ratio was 0.83, and call open interest was most concentrated at $75,000 and $80,000.

Inflows through spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds also halted over the weekend. Spot ETFs recorded net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days through Aug. 27, bringing in about $3 billion over that period. Because ETF creation and redemption take place only on weekdays when U.S. stock markets are open, a key demand channel that had supported the recent rise temporarily stopped over the weekend.

By contrast, trading continued in the institutional derivatives market over the weekend. Since late May, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has shifted to an effectively year-round trading system, excluding weekly maintenance hours. Institutional futures markets no longer need to wait for trading to resume on Sunday evening and can respond immediately to weekend price moves. The halt in spot ETF inflows while futures markets remained open acted as a key variable in weekend flows.

In the upside scenario, whether Bitcoin can regain $80,000 is important. If it stably reclaims that level, the market could interpret the buying as having absorbed the hawkish shock from Aug. 28. It could then retest $81,300, with the possibility opening of moving into the $82,000 to $83,000 area where new options positioning and technical resistance overlap.

In the downside scenario, the key is whether $77,000 holds. The Aug. 28 low formed around $77,078. If that level is lost and trading continues below it, buying that followed the early-week break above $80,000 could weaken.

If it then falls to around $75,000, the next target was presented as $72,000 to $73,000. A medium-term support zone was cited at around $69,000 to $70,000. An analysis said that to drop into that zone over the weekend would require large-scale liquidations or an additional macroeconomic shock beyond the Aug. 28 rate shock.

Medium- to long-term views are mixed. Citi lowered its 12-month bitcoin target in July to $82,000 from $112,000 and also adjusted its ETF inflow outlook to zero. In a bearish scenario reflecting a recession, it presented $53,000. Bernstein, by contrast, forecast that bitcoin will reach $150,000 in mid-2027. It also said bitcoin could rise as high as $500,000 in a bullish scenario in which currency value erosion intensifies, but those projections are on a different time horizon from last weekend's short-term price moves.

Ultimately, market attention is focused on flows after spot bitcoin ETF trading resumes. Whether bitcoin reclaims $80,000 on the back of net ETF inflows, or whether the $77,000 support breaks and deepens the correction, is expected to determine the short-term trend early this week.