A bullish divergence similar to the 2022 bear market bottom has been spotted in Bitcoin's weekly relative strength index (RSI), reviving expectations the medium- to long-term downtrend could end.

Cointelegraph reported on Monday that caution about short-term overheating is clashing with hopes for a trend shift following Bitcoin's recent price rebound.

The key is the path of the weekly RSI. RSI is a widely used technical indicator that shows trend strength by comparing price gains and losses over a set period. A bullish divergence is seen as a reversal signal when Bitcoin makes a lower low while RSI forms a higher low.

TradingView data show Bitcoin's weekly RSI in 2026 following a pattern similar to mid-2022. At that time, Bitcoin set lower price lows but the weekly RSI made higher lows, and the bear market ended about six months later. Jamie Coutts (제이미 쿠츠), chief analyst at Real Vision, said on X, formerly Twitter, that weekly charts are useful for reading long-term trends and cycle inflection points. He added that they have also captured signals of shifts in major cycles in the past.

Bitcoin's weekly RSI is now 58.3, the highest level since it hit its record high of $126,200 in October 2025. It has also broken above the prior pattern of lower RSI highs, adding to expectations of a medium- to long-term trend reversal.

In the short term, overheating concerns have grown. The daily RSI has jumped to 82.93, moving into overbought territory.

The market is offering mixed interpretations. Some see an increased risk of a short-term pullback, with the daily RSI rising to its highest level since November 2024. Others say it is too early to judge that the uptrend has faltered based only on the current reading, noting that overbought conditions with RSI above 70 have often lasted for extended periods during Bitcoin rallies.

Jonathan Landin (조너선 랜딘), chief market analyst at PrimeXBT, also cited similarities to late 2022. He pointed to a case when the daily RSI surged from 40 to 90 within a single weekly candle, and said a similar change appears to be happening again. "This kind of extreme move usually means the start of a new phase," Landin said. "It does not guarantee the end of a bear market, but it is telling us there is a chance we are entering a new stage of the cycle," he added.

Changes also showed up in a medium- to long-term secondary indicator. Bitcoin's two-month stochastic RSI has produced an actual trendline crossover that previously drew attention as a bear-market-ending signal. The indicator gives greater weight to recent price moves, and a crossover between the two trendlines is read as a clue of a bullish shift. The latest reading was 4.81. One difference is that it did not fall to the macro low around 0 that appeared before past crossovers.

As a result, the Bitcoin market is facing opposing signals around the same rebound. The weekly RSI and the two-month stochastic RSI point to the possibility the downtrend is ending, but the daily RSI highlights near-term overheating. The market's direction is expected to hinge on whether the recent rebound marks the start of a new upswing or leads to a pullback after overheating.