[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Bitcoin rose into the $69,000 range, gaining 9%. The surge pushed prediction markets into a near dead heat after bearish expectations had been dominant until a day earlier.

On Aug. 19 (local time), blockchain media outlet Decrypt viewed the uptrend as driven not by crypto-specific issues but by a combination of macro factors and large-scale short liquidations.

The U.S. Treasury said it would roughly double the size of long-term Treasury buybacks per operation to $4 billion from $2 billion starting Sept. 9. Long-term yields fell and the dollar weakened, reviving demand for risk assets.

Crypto-related stocks also rose. Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, jumped nearly 12% that day, while Coinbase rose 9%. Circle and Bitmine gained about 9 to 10% each. As crypto and related stocks climbed together, improved investor sentiment spread to the stock market as well.

The reaction in prediction markets was sharper. On Myriad, about 70% had been concentrated on bitcoin falling to $55,000 rather than rising to $84,000. By around the afternoon of Aug. 19, the odds narrowed to 51.9% for $55,000 and 48.1% for $84,000. Bets favoring a decline fell sharply in a day.

The shift also appeared in other prediction markets. On Polymarket’s 2026 bitcoin price outlook, last week put the probability of reaching $55,000 before year-end at 56% and reaching $75,000 at 51%. On Kalshi, bitcoin was seen as having a 54% chance of exceeding $67,500 within August and a 31% chance of topping $70,000, but bitcoin cleared both levels that day.

On charts, the next resistance level is $70,284. If bitcoin closes above that level on a daily basis, it could open room to rise further to $73,245. If it slips below $68,000, it could return to the trading range that has held since June.

The surge stands out less for the rise itself than for the simultaneous interaction of macro factors, short liquidations and a repricing in prediction markets. The fact that bitcoin spot flows and prediction market probabilities were sharply revised on the same day also showed market sensitivity.