Bitcoin has shown relative strength by reversing its underperformance against the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 over the past 60 days. It lagged stocks sharply last year, but analysis says cryptocurrencies have drawn investors’ attention again over the past two months, showing signs of a turnaround.

Blockchain media outlet CryptoSlate reported on Aug. 19 (local time) that bitcoin rose 2 percent over the past 60 days, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 3 percent. That put bitcoin 5 percentage points ahead of the Nasdaq 100.

The mood shifts sharply compared with the past year. Over that period, bitcoin fell 44 percent while the Nasdaq 100 rose 24 percent, leaving bitcoin 68 percentage points behind. The long-running performance gap between U.S. tech stocks and bitcoin has narrowed quickly over the past two months.

A similar pattern appeared in major altcoins. Ether fell 56 percent and Solana fell 58 percent over the past year, but both rose over the past 60 days, up 12 percent and 10 percent, respectively. Compared with the Nasdaq 100, ether posted 15 percentage points more and Solana 13 percentage points more.

Cryptocurrencies’ relative strength also stood out in shorter periods. Over the past 14 days and seven days, bitcoin, ether and Solana all rose, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell.

Some also say it is still too early to interpret the crypto rebound as a signal of a full-fledged shift in funds. NYDIG said in a recent report that weaker demand for crypto trading reflects an increase in high-yield investment options available to investors. Its analysis said investors are diversifying funds in search of higher returns, not only into bitcoin but also into AI-related stocks such as Nvidia, as well as gold, perpetual stock futures, zero-day options, sports event contracts, prediction markets and other assets. In June, investment funds moved into AI-related stocks and large initial public offerings. Over the same period, semiconductor stocks surged about 170 percent while bitcoin fell about 40 percent, showing a clear concentration of funds.

The mood shifted somewhat in August. BlackRock’s head of digital assets, Robert Mitchnick (로버트 미치닉), said bitcoin delivered meaningful outperformance during July’s correction in AI stocks. He explained that an expanding decoupling between stocks and bitcoin is a positive signal that bitcoin could become an established diversification tool within portfolios. Glassnode’s chief technology officer, Rafael Schultze-Kraft (라파엘 슐체-크라프트), also said cryptocurrencies have recently shown a trend that can compete with stocks, and assessed that they looked relatively better over the past two months.

Still, it is hard to say spot market momentum has fully returned. Glassnode said bitcoin had been left out of broad asset rotation, spot trading remains weak, and no clear return of institutional funds has been confirmed. The analysis said it is necessary to check whether a full-fledged rotation has begun through ETF fund flows.

ETF flows were also volatile. Farside Investors data showed U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of about $385 million from Aug. 10 to 14. From Aug. 17 to 18, about $487 million flowed in on a net basis, reversing sentiment. As a result, cumulative net inflows for August through Aug. 18 totaled about $967 million.

But the prevailing view is that it is still too early to judge that inflows have become a sustained trend. As of Aug. 17, bitcoin traded around $63,600 and spot liquidity remained thin. Glassnode said that while ETF flows have started to improve, market conviction is limited.

Ultimately, bitcoin’s recent strength is meaningful because it suggests its relationship with U.S. stocks is shifting again. The analysis said bitcoin does not necessarily need a sharp plunge in U.S. stocks to extend gains. It said what matters is an environment in which the Nasdaq and AI-related stocks do not monopolise market returns as they did last year.

Conversely, the situation could change if broad liquidity tightening emerges in U.S. stocks. If a sharp equity selloff leads to broad risk-asset selling, bitcoin could also struggle to sustain gains.

A key variable going forward is whether relative strength in bitcoin and major altcoins continues. If cryptocurrencies sustain outperformance versus U.S. stock indexes while bitcoin ETF funds return to stable net inflows and spot trading volume recovers, the recent rebound could be viewed as the start of a full-fledged shift in funds. If the Nasdaq and leading AI stocks resume strong gains and ETF funds again move into net outflows, the performance improvement over the past two months may remain a temporary rebound.

The recent trend suggests bitcoin could re-emerge as an asset that can compete with U.S. tech stocks, but assessments say it is not yet the stage to confirm a complete shift in market funds.