As a race for “trillion-won IPOs” in the artificial intelligence industry gathers pace, Anthropic and OpenAI are preparing to list while facing different challenges. Anthropic must justify its valuation with 2028 revenue it has yet to earn. OpenAI, meanwhile, must shore up leadership shaken by a series of executive departures.

Cryptocurrency outlet Cryptopolitan reported on Aug. 15 local time that both companies are targeting valuations approaching $1 trillion, or about 1,400 trillion won.

■ Anthropic justifies $965 billion with “revenue in 2 years”

Cryptopolitan reported that Anthropic has told its IPO working team it projects 2028 revenue of $190 billion to $200 billion, marking the first time the figures have been disclosed. Reuters reported that banks and investors involved in the deal are valuing Anthropic using an enterprise value-to-revenue multiple based on projected future revenue.

Anthropic’s annualised revenue run rate as of May was $47 billion, meaning revenue would need to rise by nearly four times to meet its 2028 target. Compared with its $965 billion valuation recognised when it raised $65 billion in May, the target implies a multiple of about 4.8 to 5.1 times. That is a lower multiple than other high-growth companies such as Palantir at about 53 times and SpaceX and Cloudflare at 41.6 times. Cerebras Systems and SpaceX also have precedents of presenting investors with long-term revenue projections through 2028 and 2029, respectively, ahead of listings. Anthropic confidentially filed a listing application with the SEC in June, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are serving as lead underwriters.

■ OpenAI shaken by wave of executive exits

At OpenAI, organisational stability is the key issue. Chief revenue officer Denise Dresser (데니스 드레서) said she intends to resign after 8 months in the role, and her successor will be Dali Rajic (달리 라직), president and chief operating officer of Wiz. Former COO Brad Lightcap (Brad Lightcap), ethics head Chloe Bakalar (클로에 바칼라) and communications and marketing chief Kate Rouch (케이트 라우치) also left in succession, and robotics head Caitlin Kalinowski (케이틀린 칼리노프스키) moved to rival Anthropic.

Safety systems head Johannes Heidecke (요하네스 하이데케) also left the company in July, and OpenAI is known to have eliminated its catastrophe-risk assessment team and folded related work into existing departments in the process. Co-founder Greg Brockman (그렉 브록먼) has described the personnel moves as a “strategic reorganisation” while expanding his operational authority, but there is an internal mood that views repeated leadership changes and the departure of safety staff as signs of organisational instability. OpenAI had originally considered listing this year, but the possibility that it will be pushed back to next year has grown.

Recent revenue momentum at the two companies also contrasts. OpenAI’s annualised revenue run rate rose this month from $24 billion to about $40 billion, but Anthropic surged ahead, jumping more than fivefold from $9 billion at the end of last year to $47 billion in May. Ultimately, the two IPOs carry different risks. For Anthropic, the question is whether revenue growth can outpace the pace of rising costs. For OpenAI, the key is whether it can retain core executives and stabilise the organisation. What investors ultimately focus on is not the revenue figures themselves, but execution that can turn those numbers into reality.