[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Bitcoin rebounded to $65,000 overnight, but the upswing did not last long.

On Aug. 10 (local time), blockchain media outlet The Crypto Basic reported that bitcoin hit $65,000 before slipping back, marking only a short-term rebound.

Macro factors worked in favor of risk assets, but bitcoin failed to capitalize on the trend. U.S. employment in July fell by 23,000, the first net decline since the pandemic, and below the market forecast of an increase of 95,000. Markets took that as support for the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged, pushing Treasury yields lower, but bitcoin fell back immediately after touching its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) level.

The pattern also appeared in weekly returns. Bitcoin held up relatively well among the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market value, but it did not break above resistance at its own moving averages.

The key on charts was the failure to reclaim the 50-day EMA and the persistence of a dead cross. Bitcoin fell 1.64 percent on a daily basis to around $63,900 and is still trading below $64,568. With the dead cross in place, where the short-term moving average remains below the long-term moving average, the signal that the medium-term downtrend has not been broken was maintained.

Other technical indicators also tilted somewhat toward weakness. The relative strength index (RSI) was around 50, showing no clear dominance by either buyers or sellers. The average directional index (ADX) was 10.6, indicating weak trend strength, while directional indicators showed a downside edge. The squeeze momentum indicator, which signals volatility compression, stayed active for 22 consecutive days, suggesting a large price move could be approaching, though it did not specify the direction of the next move.

In prediction markets, a more cautious view dominated. On the Myriad prediction market, higher odds were priced in for bitcoin falling to $55,000 than for it rising to $84,000. The probability of a drop to $55,000 was 64.6 percent, versus 35.4 percent for a rise to $84,000.

Betting around August highs and lows showed a similar trend. With bitcoin already hitting $65,000 earlier this month, that level was met, but probabilities for higher levels fell quickly. The odds were 48 percent for $67,500, 25 percent for $70,000, 11 percent for $72,500 and 5 percent for $75,000. That implies the market is effectively viewing much of the August high as already past.

By contrast, for the low-end outlook, more weight was placed on a mild pullback than on a sharp plunge. The probability of a drop to $60,000 was 35 percent, but the chance of breaking down to $55,000 was priced at 8 percent and $52,500 at 4 percent. That means crowd sentiment is more wary of a retest near $60,000 than of a sharp fall below $55,000.

The remaining points to watch are key price levels on both sides. On the upside, it will be important whether bitcoin can reclaim $64,568 on a daily closing basis and then break above the moving-average resistance that blocked the prior rebound, allowing it to retest $66,921. If it loses the $62,216 low, it would confirm a lower-low structure, with $60,000 and the $58,000 area below it cited as the next support levels.