Bitcoin on-chain activity has fallen to levels similar to the 2018-2019 bear-market transition period and is now showing signs of a rebound.

According to blockchain outlet U.Today on Aug. 10, the 30-day exponential moving average of Bitcoin active addresses recently fell to about 609,700 and the 100-day exponential moving average to about 622,000 before turning higher.

The key point is that network participation indicators have entered a range similar to past bear-market bottoms. In the 2018-2019 cycle, the 100-day exponential moving average fell to about 605,400 and the 30-day exponential moving average to about 570,700 before shifting into a recovery phase. Bitcoin's price at the time slid to about $3,200 before the final rebound.

This time, the price path is different, but the network participation levels alone are numerically quite close to the past. Bitcoin has rebounded from a recent low of about $58,500 and is now trading near $64,900. On the price chart, it has regained short-term moving averages, and support levels were cited at $64,247 and $63,346.

Momentum has also improved somewhat. The relative strength index recovered to about 54.6, tilting slightly bullish from neutral. Still, it is too early to say the trend itself has changed. Key moving averages remain overhead at $66,819 and $72,193, leaving resistance still significant. If Bitcoin rises above $66,800, the short-term structure would strengthen, and a move above $72,000 could be a more convincing signal that a larger downtrend has weakened.

It was also raised that the active-address indicator is difficult to take directly as a buy signal. Several factors can affect active-address figures, including trading behavior, exchange activity, batch processing and changes in how the Bitcoin network is used. For this reason, what matters is the direction of the indicator rather than the absolute number. The fact that the two exponential moving averages for active addresses entered a historical low zone and are rising again suggests a possible halt in the decline in network participation.

Current data appears closer to showing the possibility of bottom formation than to signaling a standalone buy for Bitcoin. Network activity is increasing and the price appears to be stabilizing, but for the technical picture to clearly strengthen, it must actually break through resistance between $66,800 and $72,200. In this situation, the market is watching whether the on-chain rebound leads to a shift in the price trend or remains a short-term recovery.