[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] XRP may come under additional downside pressure in August 2026.

According to blockchain media outlet The Crypto Basic on July 31 (local time), XRP has repeatedly followed a pattern of weakening in August and then recovering some of its losses in September.

XRP is currently trading around $1.08 after falling from its July 2025 peak of $3.60. That is down more than 70% from the peak recorded in July last year. The downtrend has continued for 12 months, and the market is waiting for a clear sign of recovery.

Past cases share a common thread. In years with a strong mid-cycle character such as 2014, 2018 and 2022, XRP rose in July, fell in August and rebounded in September. Market conditions differed in each period, but the month-by-month summer moves were similar.

In 2014, it rose 36% in July but the rally did not last long. It fell 5.69% in August and slipped another 4.51% in September. The direction then changed. From October to December, it rose for three consecutive months, marking its first run of monthly gains since its 2013 launch. During that period, XRP jumped from $0.0047 to $0.0280, a gain of 495%.

A similar move appeared during the 2018 bear market. After months of weakness, XRP fell another 23% in August. The price dropped to $0.3349, but after summer ended, buying returned and it surged 73% in September to $0.5812. That rebound did not last long, and it later turned back to declines.

The same pattern was seen in 2022. With market shock intensifying after the May collapse of the Terra ecosystem, XRP was weak throughout the first half. It rose 14.42% in July. It then fell 13.74% in August, before climbing 46.79% in September as buying flowed back in. But the move did not lead to a full shift into a bull market, and a broader market uptrend only began in November 2024.

This year's path also resembles past mid-cycle periods. XRP has remained in a long-term downtrend throughout 2026, but July is likely to finish with a modest gain. So far, its July gain is 3.91%. If that continues, XRP could face renewed selling pressure in August and may attempt a partial rebound in September, as in the past.

Past data also shows limits to rebounds. Even when recoveries were large, such as the 73% surge in September 2018 and the 46.79% rise in September 2022, the long-term downtrend did not end immediately. XRP later gave back part of its gains, and a stronger rally appeared only after time passed.

As a result, the market is focusing less on whether there will be an August correction and more on whether a September rebound would remain a short-term technical recovery or develop into a signal of a trend reversal. The historical pattern so far points to the possibility of a rebound after summer, but it also shows that it is difficult to conclude that a new bull market begins on that rebound alone.