Bitcoin held the $64,500 level and rebounded alongside U.S. stocks.

Cointelegraph reported on July 30 that the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index matched market expectations and a sharp selloff in semiconductor shares that had pressured risk assets early in the week eased, helping sentiment recover somewhat.

On TradingView, bitcoin traded near $64,500 on the day, little changed from the previous day. At the same time in U.S. stocks, the S&P 500 rose 1 percent and the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.3 percent. As pressure from semiconductor shares that had seen heavy selling early in the week eased, the crypto market also showed a relatively stable trend during U.S. trading hours.

Market attention focused on the June PCE data. The June PCE inflation rate was 3.7 percent from a year earlier, in line with market forecasts, and slowed from 4.1 percent in May. It fell from the previous month for the first time since 2020, showing the uptrend had eased.

The PCE is an indicator the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) considers important when judging inflation trends. The Cleveland Fed explains that the PCE is a broader inflation gauge that more quickly reflects changes in consumer choices. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) also said that June personal income growth reflected an increase in compensation, higher asset income and an expansion of government social security benefits, but was partly offset by a decline in farm proprietors’ income.

Still, market reaction was cautious despite signs of cooling inflation. Market analysis firm The Kobeissi Letter said on X, formerly Twitter, that the 3.7 percent figure was the second-highest result since October 2024 and pointed out: "US inflation is still moving at almost double the Fed's target rate of 2.0%." Johns Hopkins economist Steve Hanke also highlighted the gap from the target.

On the monetary policy front, attention also focused on the Fed keeping rates unchanged at its meeting a day earlier. It was reported that differences of opinion have emerged within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) over an appropriate policy direction. In this situation, a view also emerged that the impact of future rate decisions on bitcoin prices could be smaller than before.

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, said the impact of future rate announcements on bitcoin prices could be smaller than in the past. He said that in bitcoin’s history, rates moved sharply from 0 percent to 2.5 percent, then back to 0 percent, to 5 percent and to 3.5 percent, but the magnitude of future changes is likely to be smaller. He cited CME FedWatch, saying expected rate changes over the next year amount to a 50 basis point increase.

Hougan said new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could take a different approach from his predecessor Jerome Powell. He also mentioned that U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly signaled he expects Warsh to take a dovish stance. The market is watching whether such changes, if they materialise, could be favorable for risk assets.

Meanwhile, domestic crypto trading is rising alongside a sharp fall in South Korean stocks. On the day, as selling pressure in semiconductor shares eased somewhat, U.S. stocks and bitcoin both appeared to regain stability. The market’s next focus is expected to be whether cooling inflation will be limited to a temporary rebound, or whether it will combine with expectations for Fed policy to further reduce bitcoin volatility.