The gap between whales and retail investors has widened further in Bitcoin flowing into Binance.

On July 27, CoinPost reported that on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant said retail Bitcoin inflows to Binance held up more firmly than whale inflows over the past 30 days.

Whale Bitcoin inflows to Binance over the past 30 days were tallied at $3.9 billion. That was down 44.3 percent from the previous peak of $7.0 billion recorded on June 12. Retail investor inflows, by contrast, were $7.8 billion, down 22 percent from $10.0 billion on June 5. As a result, retail inflows widened to about twice the whale level, and the gap expanded to $3.9 billion.

It was also presented that the metric tracks only exchange inflows. CryptoQuant said the metric reflects only transfers to Binance and does not show whether assets were later sold or their ultimate use. That means selling pressure cannot be concluded based solely on rising or falling inflows.

Market attention is shifting to the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 28 to 29. A policy rate decision is scheduled for July 29. Because the whale-retail inflow gap appeared ahead of the FOMC, the monetary policy outcome is cited as a variable that could further widen the split or narrow it again.

The probability of a 25 basis point increase implied by the interest rate futures market was put at about 36 percent. For now, there is an expectation that holding rates at a target range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent is the more likely scenario. Still, concerns about a renewed rise in inflation starting with energy prices have grown again, and the possibility of an additional hike has not completely disappeared.

CryptoQuant viewed that if an unexpected rate hike becomes reality, it could support U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar while tightening financial conditions for risk assets. It mentioned that this could increase Bitcoin's short-term volatility. It added that if there is no rate hike and Federal Reserve remarks are dovish, market pressure could ease.

In this situation, Binance inflow data is read as a signal showing differences in sentiment by investor type. While whale inflows have fallen faster recently, retail funds have contracted relatively less. CryptoQuant viewed that with retail inflows running at twice the scale of whales, the July 29 outcome could be an occasion to judge whether the divergence persists or converges.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin held by long-term holders (LTH) was estimated at about 16.3 million BTC. Their average acquisition cost was estimated at about $49,400, and the unrealised profit rate fell to about 30 percent. Compared with about 340 percent in January 2025, profit capacity in the long-term holding zone has also shrunk sharply. Against this backdrop, attention is on how short-term inflow trends and the FOMC outcome could change Bitcoin supply-and-demand sentiment.