Bitcoin could rise by double digits if its developers present a clear roadmap for responding to the threat from quantum computers, a forecast said.

On July 24, blockchain outlet Cointelegraph reported that Charles Edwards (찰스 에드워즈), founder of Capriole Investments, said markets could quickly re-evaluate quantum risk if Bitcoin Core developers disclose a response plan and broad implementation steps within a few months.

Edwards argued that Bitcoin developers should set aside pride and clearly spell out a plan to strengthen the network against quantum-computer attacks. He said it would be a positive for the market if the Bitcoin Core team lays out a roadmap within 2 to 3 months and says it will resolve the issue within the next 2 years. He added that such an announcement could reduce much of the risk overnight.

Debate continues in the Bitcoin community over whether it needs to switch to quantum-resistant cryptography. Some see major network changes as potentially clashing with Bitcoin’s core philosophy. Others counter that there is still time before quantum computers become a real threat and that hasty fixes could create bigger problems.

Markets are also assessing that the uncertainty is weighing on investor sentiment. BlackRock recently cited quantum computers as a long-term risk factor to investors in spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Edwards pointed to some other blockchains that have already presented directions for 대응 and said Bitcoin could quickly surge by double digits if it offers a clear solution, or a path to a solution.

He also forecast that the quantum issue could instead become an upside catalyst. He argued that Bitcoin improvement proposals released so far are not practical solutions and that the market has already priced in much of the risk. By his estimate, Bitcoin is trading about 40 percent below its fair value based on its energy value, with quantum risk acting as about a 30 percent discount factor.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $65,300, about 49 percent below the record high of $126,100 set in October last year. Edwards said the current price only reflects information known as of today. Risk could grow if it is confirmed that Google or other major companies are closer to 'Q-Day', he said.

Q-Day refers to the point when quantum computers become powerful enough to derive a private key from a public key, he said. Based on timelines presented by major quantum-computing companies and researchers, Edwards estimated that point at around 4 to 5 years from now. He said the time needed for Bitcoin to develop and apply an actual solution should also be considered.

In this situation, Ethereum is expected to complete its post-quantum transition work by 2029, raising the likelihood that Bitcoin’s preparedness will draw more attention. Edwards said risks could be reduced significantly if either a solution or a roadmap is presented, but market pressure could increase if there are signs quantum-computer development is moving faster than expected. While Bitcoin’s price reflects quantum risk, he judged that the odds are tilting more toward improvement than deterioration going forward.

Google interest in "Quantum Computing Bitcoin" peaked when Bitcoin peaked. Evaluation of the risk was at a maxima when price was, resulting in derisking, a leading indicator to price falling. The Quantum threat drove Bitcoin down. The floor interest in quantum risk to Bitcoin is… pic.twitter.com/a7m3Ucq7wr