[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] As debate over the U.S. Senate’s CLARITY bill shows progress, markets react more strongly in assets expected to benefit from regulation than in bitcoin, including Coinbase and Circle, and Ethereum and Solana. The industry says bitcoin already has much of an institutional foundation. It says exchanges, stablecoins and smart-contract ecosystems with unclear legal status are direct beneficiaries of the bill.

On July 23 local time, blockchain outlet CryptoSlate reported that markets are focusing on whether the CLARITY bill carries greater institutional significance for exchanges, stablecoins and blockchain ecosystems such as Ethereum and Solana than for bitcoin.

U.S. Senate Republicans on July 22 released a revised draft of the CLARITY bill. It includes stablecoin rewards, exemptions from U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) fundraising rules for token issuers, DeFi classification, anti-money laundering (AML) obligations, allocation of regulatory authority and tokenisation. Passing the Senate before the August recess would require support from at least eight additional Democratic senators.

Market reactions have already diverged. On July 21, after news spread that negotiations on ethics provisions had progressed, Coinbase shares jumped 9.6 percent and Circle surged 8.6 percent, while bitcoin rose about 2 percent.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said the CLARITY bill’s direct impact on bitcoin’s price would be limited. He said bitcoin is already classified as a commodity and has a regulated futures market, institutional custody systems and spot ETFs, leaving little for the bill to change.

Ethereum and Solana, and applications built on those networks, still lack clear legal status and regulatory boundaries, analysis shows. That makes them likely direct beneficiaries of the CLARITY bill.

Grayscale also offered a similar outlook. The company named Ethereum, Solana, BNB Chain and the Canton Network as leading candidates to benefit from expanded tokenisation, staking and on-chain activity. In the stablecoin market, currently about $310 billion, Ethereum circulates about $149.7 billion in stablecoins and Solana about $15.3 billion. Circle’s USDC supply is also about $73.3 billion. That is why the market sees Coinbase and Circle as representative beneficiaries of the bill.

Bitcoin is not without any positive effect. Citi said regulatory clarity could help ETF demand and expand crypto distribution on banking and wealth-management platforms. It lowered its 12-month bitcoin price target to $112,000 from $143,000, and later to $82,000, citing weaker legislative momentum and expected ETF inflows. It also cut its forecast for net bitcoin ETF inflows over the next year to $0 from $10 billion.

Matt Hougan of Bitwise, its chief investment officer, said the core of the CLARITY bill is turning a friendly regulatory environment into a sustainable legal framework. Coinbase Institutional Research also said clear rules would be a structural driver that accelerates integration between crypto and traditional finance.

Uncertainties remain. Senator Elizabeth Warren’s side says it still has problems with ethics provisions and Justice Department enforcement powers, and is opposing the bill. If it does not pass before the August recess, assets highly sensitive to regulation such as Coinbase and Circle, DeFi and altcoins could be hit the hardest, analysis shows.

Arthur Hayes said, "What moves bitcoin’s price is fiat liquidity, not bills," arguing that bitcoin’s core value comes from outside the regulatory framework.

The market is watching whether, if the CLARITY bill passes, the biggest beneficiary will be bitcoin or assets that would gain more from institutional adoption, such as Coinbase and Circle and Ethereum and Solana.