A full-fledged next crypto bull market would need retail investor money to return, and the signal could be most clearly seen in Dogecoin, an analysis says.

On July 22, blockchain media outlet U.Today reported that market analyst Jordi Visser (조르디 비서) recently assessed that while the crypto market continues its upward trend, it still lacks the speculative energy centred on individual investors that boosted the late stages of past bull markets.

Visser paid more attention to whether the broader crypto ecosystem is spreading than to bitcoin itself. Citing his 'Crypto Financial Rails 40 Equal Weight Index', he said, "The crypto advance continues and my 40 ecosystem index I track has closed above the mid-June highs. Bitcoin is just below." The index is an indicator that shows the market's overall trend by holding 40 crypto-related firms, protocols and assets at equal weights.

He saw that the final driving force for further gains has not yet been confirmed. He said, "A true breakout needs the energy from retail investors, and that move is best seen in Dogecoin." That means a strong jump in Dogecoin would allow investors to judge that retail sentiment has revived.

Based on performance this year alone, Visser's 'Crypto Financial Rails 40 Equal Weight Index' has outperformed both bitcoin and Dogecoin. The index started at 100 at the beginning of the year, then fell sharply during market corrections in January and February, but recovered through the spring. Dogecoin, by contrast, has shown clear weakness in 2026 compared with bitcoin and the index, and its price has stayed around the 57 to 58 level. That is the backdrop for interpretations that retail-driven speculative demand has not yet fully returned.

Dogecoin's short-term trend also supported that view. Dogecoin set a new longest streak as it extended to 65 consecutive trading days closing below its 20-day moving average. The 20-day moving average, the average of closing prices over the past 20 trading days, is a commonly used indicator for gauging short-term momentum. In general, prices that move consistently above the line are interpreted as a sign of strong buying interest.

Dogecoin closed on July 21 at about $0.0735, about 0.8 percent below its 20-day moving average. It stayed below the line for 65 straight days, and the cumulative decline over the period was about 29.4 percent.

The intensity of the decline itself was not the largest on record. In a 57-day stretch from January to March 2025, it fell about 50.7 percent. In this downturn, the length of the period stands out more than the size of the drop.

Visser did not see Dogecoin as directly determining the direction of bitcoin or the overall crypto market. Even if the broader market rises, a bull market's explosive power could be limited without retail money. In this flow, Dogecoin is serving as a leading indicator of whether rotation into meme coins is coming back to life.

Dogecoin has recently traded around $0.072 and shown signs of stabilising, but the sharp breakout seen in past meme-coin cycles has not yet appeared. As a result, whether the crypto market remains a bitcoin-led rise or spreads broadly with retail inflows is expected to hinge in part on whether Dogecoin rebounds.

The crypto advance continues with my 40 name eco-system index closing above the mid-June highs and BTC just below. I am still looking for a true eco-system breakout to need the energy from retail best seen from DOGE which had a record 65th close below the 20 day moving average… pic.twitter.com/9e1w0dnICS