[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] As gold has fallen about 28 percent from its peak in January to around $4,030 an ounce, analysis says the cryptocurrency market is also facing the same liquidity pressure.

On July 21 (local time), blockchain media outlet Cryptopolitan reported that gold and bitcoin have recently been affected together by rising real interest rates and tight funding conditions.

The key variables are U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar. As of July 20, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury was about 4.57 percent and inflation expectations were presented at about 2.3 percent. Real rates therefore exceeded 2 percent, and the dollar rose to its highest level in 13 months. That has increased the burden on gold and bitcoin, which do not generate interest income. As cash and Treasuries become more attractive, funds are more likely to leave assets that rely on expectations of price gains.

A June 17 U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting was cited as a turning point in market interpretation. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh (케빈 워시) kept the policy rate unchanged at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, but the market took the outcome as more hawkish than expected. Warsh did not present a dot plot and also did not provide guidance on the future policy path. That increased the impact of key economic indicators on rate expectations, and an assessment said gold prices have become more sensitive to changes in real rates.

Wall Street forecasts have also fallen. JPMorgan on July 3 cut its gold price forecast for the fourth quarter this year to $4,500 from $6,000. HSBC adjusted its 2026 average gold price forecast to $4,560 an ounce from $4,864 and put its year-end forecast at $4,750.

Some factors supporting gold prices remain. The World Gold Council (WGC) said net gold purchases by central banks in the first quarter of 2026 totalled 244 tonnes, exceeding both the previous quarter and the past five-year record. Ole Hansen said holdings of spot gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) stabilised after months of selling, and that official-sector buying is now the key support factor.

In terms of inflows, gold outperformed bitcoin. BlackRock said net inflows into spot gold ETFs since the start of the year were $44.4 billion, while spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $23.6 billion. BlackRock said investors view both assets as hedges against inflation, currency debasement and as diversification tools in stock-and-bond centred portfolios.

The message for cryptocurrency investors is relatively clear. High interest rates that prevent gold prices from rising are also limiting a rebound in digital assets. Hansen said the gold market is failing to find direction between opposing forces of inflation and slowing growth. If real rates fall and the rate cycle turns, gold and cryptocurrencies could gain together, but liquidity pressure could grow if the Fed's tightening stance and dollar strength continue.

The key point to watch is whether liquidity turns direction. If real rates fall and the rate cycle breaks, gold and cryptocurrencies could rebound together. If the Fed's tightening stance continues and the dollar remains strong, market liquidity could tighten further. Ultimately, gold's correction is read as a signal that it is not only a gold issue, but that cryptocurrencies and growth stocks are moving under the same macro variables.