An analysis said early signs of a 2026 bear market bottom may be emerging as realized losses among bitcoin holders who have held for 1 to 2 years start to slow.

Cointelegraph reported on Wednesday that Cryptovizart, chief research analyst at on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, said the loss-realization flow of investors who bought bitcoin near the recent cycle peak shows a structure similar to past bear market bottom phases.

The indicator Cryptovizart highlighted was the dollar-denominated realized losses of 1 to 2-year holders. He said it is among the items he watches most closely when gauging when a bear market ends. "One of the indicators I look at most closely when determining the end of a bear market is the dollar-denominated realized losses of 1 to 2-year holders," he said.

This group consists of investors who last moved coins on-chain between July 2024 and July 2025. During that period, bitcoin rose from about $62,800 to $107,000. After the price then remained weak, it was interpreted that many buyers from that range were left with unrealized losses.

A chart presented by Glassnode showed that realized losses on a 30-day moving average basis recently rose above $75 million before showing signs of turning. Cryptovizart said this group tends to gradually increase realized losses the longer price weakness lasts, but explained that when their 30-day moving average of realized losses cools and begins to turn down, it has often been one of the clearest early signs that the market’s heaviest distribution phase has passed.

Signals used to judge a market bottom are not limited to this indicator. Glassnode said in its regular report, "The Week On-chain", that the aggregate average purchase price of short-term holders could become the next resistance zone on the bull-market side. That level is currently about $69,000, overlapping with the all-time high zone from the 2021 bull market.

It was also mentioned that bitcoin’s two-month stochastic relative strength index is creating typical conditions for a market reversal. While on-chain loss-realization flows and technical indicators are simultaneously pointing to the possibility of bottom formation, whether prices actually reverse is expected to depend on how much selling pressure around $69,000 the market can absorb.