Bitcoin slipped to as low as the $57,000 level this month, prompting analysis that it may be forming a long-term bottom for this cycle.

On July 10, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that on-chain indicators suggest it may be entering a bottoming phase, but a decisive signal confirming a trend reversal has yet to appear.

Market analyst Seth said it is increasingly likely that Bitcoin’s long-term (HTF) macro bottom has already formed. Writing on X, formerly Twitter, he said, "There are signals that the long-term macro bottom is in," and wrote that "$58,000 is the new $18,000." Seth, who pinpointed Bitcoin’s $16,000 low during the 2022 bear market, said it would not be surprising if the cycle low has already been made this time as well.

Bitcoin fell to $57,747 on July 1, marking its lowest level this cycle. It then rebounded to around the $64,600 level around July 5. The current price is around $63,800, down 27 percent from the start of the year. It remains 49.4 percent below the all-time high (ATH) of $126,200 recorded in October 2025. The rebound does not mean the recovery is complete.

On-chain data points to entry into a low-price zone. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode assessed that Bitcoin remains undervalued, having stayed below both the true market mean and the average cost basis of short-term holders for about 5 months. An expansion of losses among long-term investors, seen near major lows in past bear markets, was also observed again.

Obstacles to confirming a bottom are also clear. Glassnode said selling by long-term holders has strengthened. The loss share of total realized value has risen to 43 percent, and realized losses of about $280 million a day hit their highest level since December 2022. The amount held by long-term investors currently in loss was also tallied at more than 5.5 million BTC.

A recovery in demand remains weak. Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to see net outflows, and daily trading volume of $650 million to $950 million is about 80 percent lower than at the October 2025 peak. With spot supply and demand failing to strengthen, questions remain over the durability of the price rebound.

Sentiment in the derivatives market has improved somewhat. The put-to-call ratio fell to its lowest level so far in 2026. But the options market is still pricing in the risk of further declines. Short-term sentiment has improved, but the signal is that downside caution has not been fully lifted.

Ultimately, the market’s key focus is whether selling by long-term holders eases. Glassnode said Bitcoin may be in the final stage of forming a market bottom, but it noted that to confirm a sustained recovery, selling pressure from long-term holders must first abate. Whether the recent drop to the $57,000 range carries the same meaning as the $16,000 low in 2022 will depend on whether an improvement in supply and demand follows.