Bitcoin has risen close to 10 percent so far in July, posting its strongest July performance in the past four years. Still, the market is increasingly wary that the rebound may not lead to a trend reversal and could instead repeat a summer weakness similar to 2022.

CoinGlass data showed BTC/USD is up 9.5 percent in July, according to blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph on July 11 local time. That is the highest July gain for bitcoin in four years.

The reason the market is watching is the similarity to 2022. At the time, bitcoin rebounded about 17 percent in July after plunging 38 percent the previous month. But it fell about 14 percent in August and slipped another 3 percent in September, confirming the July rebound was not a trend-reversal signal.

That has kept market participants cautious despite the short-term strength. Trader Daan Crypto Trades said the current move is broadly similar to average July performance, but said it was still early. In a post on X, formerly Twitter, he said bitcoin has so far moved almost in line with its average July performance, but it is still early.

He also pointed to seasonality. Even including bull markets, the third quarter is bitcoin's weakest quarter, he noted, with an average gain of 6 percent. He explained that markets tend to slow in summer, with liquidity and trading volumes falling, and that this tendency is related to the pattern.

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital also issued a similar warning signal. He said bitcoin's price action in 2026 is closely tracking past bear-market phases. He also said that if historical patterns repeat this week, bitcoin's summer relief rally could strengthen further in the second half of July.

Rekt Capital said August could be a period that gives back most of July's gains, and then a typical bear-market bottom could form toward year-end. That view is interpreted as seeing both a potential short-term rebound and a possible medium-term adjustment.

In this situation, some in the market are also suggesting upside target prices for the remainder of July. $70,000 was cited as a likely target area, and Peter Anthony (피터 앤서니), who runs the YouTube channel House of Crypto, said it would be an "interesting few days" based on daily chart analysis values. Another trader viewed $67,000 to $73,000 as a zone to enter short positions, expecting July strength to be followed by August weakness and then greater volatility in the fourth quarter.

Daan Crypto Trades also focused on the fourth quarter. He said real volatility in bitcoin appears in the fourth quarter, and that the direction is open both ways. That is read as a view that places more importance on increased volatility in the following quarter than on the possibility of a summer rebound and adjustment.

On-chain indicators are also cited as a factor adding to market caution. Recently, for the first time in four years, several on-chain indicators have begun to send bear-market bottom signals. Still, overall demand has shown only partial signs of recovery. That has made it more likely that the move after August will determine whether the July rise leads to a structural recovery in demand or remains a seasonal rebound.

$BTC Has been pretty much in line with its average July performance so far. But of course it is still early. Generally, this 3rd quarter is Bitcoin's worst with an average performance of just +6% in its history. This has to do a lot with slow markets, low liquidity and volumes… pic.twitter.com/xZSxp1KnEu