An analysis said bitcoin has remained for five months in a “deep undervaluation” zone, trading below the average purchase price of major investors.

On July 9, blockchain media outlet Coinpost reported that on-chain analytics firm Glassnode said in its weekly report that a bottoming process is under way but has not yet been completed.

Glassnode said bitcoin is being bought below the average acquisition cost held by recent buyers and active investors across the market. It said long-term accumulation during such undervalued periods has also underpinned major bottoms in past cycles. It added that the possibility of further declines remains, down toward the realised price that is seen as the lower bound of a bear market. The realised price was given as $53,000.

It identified realised-loss selling by long-term holders as the key pressure in the current downturn. Glassnode said stop-loss selling by investors who have held bitcoin for more than 155 days is the main downside pressure on the market. Relative realised profit and loss indicators between long- and short-term holders showed the share of realised losses by long-term holders expanded to 43% currently from 15% in early February 2026.

It also attributed repeated failed attempts at price recovery to that period. Glassnode cited the actions of those long-term holders as the reason bitcoin has been unable to regain the upper end of its current trading range. It said each rebound attempt has been met with fresh selling from investors sitting on unrealised losses. The 30-day moving average of realised losses by long-term holders has recently jumped to about $280 million a day, the highest since December 2022.

Glassnode said that unless this indicator falls meaningfully, the path to a full return to a bull market could remain blocked. It added that the trend of the indicator over the next few weeks to months will be an important signal for judging whether sellers are being exhausted.

On institutional demand, clear signs of recovery remain limited. Spot bitcoin ETF flows have calmed somewhat, but net outflows continue. Daily trading value stands at about $650 million to $950 million, about 80% below the peak in October 2025. That means demand from institutional investors has yet to stabilise.

The derivatives market sent mixed signals. Positions are tilting toward buying even in a cautious mood. The put-to-call ratio of options open interest is 0.56, the lowest level this year. That implies about 2 call options are being built up for each put option. But the broader options market is still pricing downside risk at a premium. Elevated 25-delta skew across all maturities reflected stronger demand for hedges against declines than for upside exposure.

Glassnode concluded that while conditions for bottom formation are gradually falling into place, confirming signals have yet to emerge. To bring a regime shift within sight, it said selling pressure must ease and institutional fund flows must stabilise, and ideally bitcoin must sustainably regain about $76,600, the average acquisition cost of active investors. It said the pace of long-term holder selling pressure and the stability of ETF fund flows will remain key variables for the bitcoin market.