XRP could fall below the psychological support level of $1 if bitcoin weakness continues, a forecast showed.

On July 8 (local time), blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that Oliver Michel (올리버 미셸), CEO of German investment firm Tokenus Investment, presented both the possibility of a short-term rebound and further declines in a recent XRP price analysis.

Michel said that based on XRP’s weekly and daily charts, the recent trend has not completely broken down. XRP rebounded from a July 1 low of $1.02 and rose to $1.18 on Saturday, but later slipped again and has returned to around $1.07. He said the rebound could be seen as the start of a bullish turn, but if the overall market weakens again it could remain only a temporary relief rally.

The key variable is bitcoin’s direction. Michel said that if bitcoin does not come under major pressure again, XRP could try to move higher. In that case, $1.29 was cited as the most important resistance level. XRP rose to that level on June 15, then slid and formed a lower high. Michel said that if XRP clearly breaks above the $1.29 supply zone, further gains could follow after a post-breakout retest.

He forecast that if bitcoin falls further, XRP could also be pushed below $1. He said the recent rebound to $1.18 could be a relief rally ahead of the next decline. In that case, $0.91 to $0.93 was presented as the next support zone. That implies room for an additional 13 to 15 percent decline from the current price of $1.07.

The market is also focusing on a divergence between XRP’s price and fund flows. XRP spot exchange-traded funds have continued to attract new money, but XRP’s price has not formed a clear upward trend. Net inflows into XRP spot ETFs last week were tallied at $17.19 million, extending weekly net inflows to 9 consecutive weeks. However, XRP posted only 3 weekly bullish candles over the past 9 weeks and has fallen 30.5 percent from the $1.54 high recorded in mid-May to current levels.

Over the same period, flows diverged from other major crypto ETFs. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $526.6 million last week, extending fund withdrawals to 8 consecutive weeks, and ethereum spot ETFs also posted net outflows of $13.7 million. Some funds moved to XRP, but the price reaction was limited.

Michel said he does not expect the divergence to last long. He raised the possibility that XRP could eventually move into a “parabolic rise,” and said the pressure from ETF inflows would at some point be reflected in the price. He also said that “something is forming within the market,” and forecast that if inflows and prices align, a move similar to the late-2024 rally could be repeated.

As future catalysts, he mentioned Ripple’s disclosure of full MiCA compliance and the possibility of XRP integration by the U.S. Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC). However, Michel’s scenario is premised on bitcoin’s direction and whether ETF inflows are actually reflected in price. As a result, in the short term, whether XRP breaks above $1.29 and holds the $1 level, and on the downside whether support at $0.91 to $0.93 holds, remain turning points that will determine its next move.

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