An analysis says bitcoin has again entered a reversal zone similar to the bottom of the 2022 bear market.

On July 8, Cointelegraph reported that an analyst known as Frank diagnosed bitcoin as forming a “typical bitcoin bottom” as its price action moves toward the $65,000 level.

In his latest analysis posted on X, formerly Twitter, Frank said the worst phase of bitcoin’s downtrend has already passed. “This is a typical bitcoin bottom signal,” he wrote. “All bottom signals are already lit or lighting up, and it will be very clear in hindsight,” he added.

As key evidence, he pointed to bitcoin’s 200-week simple moving average and related range-based indicators. The most closely watched range was the ninth decile, which has previously marked reversal points at the 2022 bear-market low and during the March 2020 COVID-19 plunge. Some analysts said bitcoin’s price has entered this reversal range again.

Indicators for short-term holders also supported the possibility of a rebound. Frank interpreted as a positive sign that the SOPR for short-term holders who have held bitcoin for six months or less has turned positive. The indicator shows whether coins moved on-chain are in profit or at a loss. “A key bitcoin metric might be signaling that a market shift is underway,” he wrote. “STH-SOPR just flipped green as short-term holders are realizing profits,” he added.

This analysis also ties in with a market view that bitcoin’s 2026 bear market is entering its closing phase. Market participants have also cited recent on-chain indicators and price baselines reaching levels not seen since 2022 as factors lending weight to the bottom thesis.

Not all indicators point to an immediate rebound. On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant took a more cautious stance on interpreting short-term holder SOPR. CryptoQuant analyst Gemini said that in stronger bottoming phases, short-term holder SOPR has often fallen much deeper. “The current figure is far from the deeper capitulation zone near 0.93 seen at past local bottoms,” he said.

The market is weighing whether these differences mean a bottom-confirmation phase is under way or whether further declines are needed. Indicators based on the 200-week moving average and signals of profit-taking by short-term holders suggest the possibility of a reversal, but another view remains that a larger capitulation must come first, as reflected in CryptoQuant’s interpretation. As a result, key points to watch include whether bitcoin can hold the current reversal zone and whether selling pressure from short-term holders intensifies again.

a key bitcoin metric might be signaling that a market shift is underway. sth-sopr just flipped green as short-term holders are realizing profits. the market treating short-term holders well is a characteristic of a bull market. $btc pic.twitter.com/QL90eAiNkm