Bitcoin slipped toward $62,000, giving back part of its recent rebound. It fell to $57,700 last week and then recovered $64,000, but the rise appears to have stalled once. On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant assessed that as long as support at $60,000 holds, the possibility of additional short-term gains remains.

Bitcoin Magazine reported on Tuesday that CryptoQuant diagnosed the current market as a "recovery phase within a bear market" rather than a "resumption of a bull market."

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, analysed the recent rebound, saying it was better seen as a bear market rally rather than a trend reversal.

The key basis for that view is its proprietary Bull Score index. The indicator combines on-chain data, market trends and valuations into a score from 0 to 100. The Bull Score is currently stuck at 20. CryptoQuant generally interprets readings below 40 as bearish and those above 60 as a sustainable bull market. That means the market has recovered somewhat from the recent low, but the market structure itself remains in bearish territory.

Still, there are factors that support the possibility of a short-term rebound. CryptoQuant analysed that July has been a relatively strong month for bitcoin over the past 10 years. Even in 2018 and 2022, when a downtrend persisted, bitcoin rose about 20 percent and 17 percent, respectively. With a rebound also emerging in July 2026 after the $57,700 low, it assessed that in the short term the potential for further gains is greater than the risk of decline.

Demand indicators are also improving. The 30-day change in total bitcoin demand across spot and perpetual futures markets fell to about minus 650,000 BTC in early June, marking the weakest level since 2022. After that, the pace of demand contraction narrowed quickly, and speculative futures demand returned to positive territory.

Spot selling pressure has also eased to its lowest level since mid-May. CryptoQuant explained, "If total demand turns back to positive territory, it could be a signal that the demand engine driving bitcoin gains has restarted."

The Coinbase Premium Index, which reflects U.S. institutional investor sentiment, also appears to be stabilising. The index plunged deep into negative territory in early June when bitcoin fell to around $57,000. It remains below zero now but is improving alongside the price recovery. That is interpreted as meaning institutional demand is gradually stabilising.

Valuation indicators also support the possibility of a bottom forming. The on-chain unrealised profit and loss (MVRV) margin for 1- to 3-month holders fell below minus 24 percent in early June. CryptoQuant judges readings below minus 12 percent as undervalued territory.

In the past, when losses among short-term holders grew extremely large, local price bottoms often formed after capitulation selling. Bitcoin later rebounded from $57,700, and the indicator also recovered.

Still, CryptoQuant said it was too early to declare a trend reversal. While bitcoin holds the $60,000 support level, short-term upside remains open, but to judge that a long-term bull market has started again, the Bull Score index must rise to at least 60.

Ultimately, the analysis said the current market is moving out of the low and continuing a recovery, but it is more appropriate to view it as a technical rebound within a bear market rather than a return to a bull market.