The U.S. crypto market structure bill known as the Clarity bill has four weeks left to clear Congress ahead of the August recess.

According to foreign media including blockchain outlets CryptoSlate and Bitcoin Magazine on July 8, the Senate returns on July 13 and must decide whether to act on the bill by Aug. 7, the last scheduled working day before the August recess. CFTC Commissioner Michael Selig said passage was still possible even after Congress missed its July 4 target deadline. "We are almost there. We need to get this done," he said.

The Clarity bill’s core provisions would create a federal regulatory framework for the digital asset market and divide oversight authority between the SEC and the CFTC. The House passed the bill last summer, but the Senate has not yet taken it to a floor vote.

The timeline has already slipped once. White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt set July 4 as a target for signing, but there was neither a floor vote nor a motion to end debate. The bill is listed as item 423 on the Senate’s legislative calendar, but Senate Republican leader John Thune has not yet scheduled floor time.

The remaining steps are not easy. After debating the bill, the Senate must secure 60 votes to overcome a filibuster and reconcile differences between the House and Senate versions to send a final bill to U.S. President Donald Trump. If floor debate begins in July, it would signal that Senate leaders see a high likelihood of passage, but if it slips to September, momentum could weaken amid budget disputes and the election season. Selig warned that failure to pass it before the recess could push the next chance back by years.

There are 2 key sticking points. One is Section 604, which would prevent money transmitter rules from being applied to developers and blockchain infrastructure providers that do not control customer funds. The industry worries that if that provision is weakened, even non-custodial software developers and network operators could be subject to financial intermediary obligations. The National Organization of Black Law Enforcement Executives recently expressed support for the bill, and a major U.S. county sheriffs association has shifted to a neutral stance.

The other is an ethics provision targeting crypto businesses linked to Trump’s family. Trump’s financial disclosure includes more than $1 billion in crypto-related income last year, with hundreds of millions of dollars tied to the TRUMP memecoin. Senator Elizabeth Warren, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, said she opposes any bill that cannot block this issue, and Senator Ruben Gallego said he can continue to support it only if there is a strong ethics agreement. Selig criticised these demands as undermining the chance for bipartisan passage.

Senator Cynthia Lummis, who leads the Senate Banking Committee’s digital assets subcommittee, said the negotiating team plans to release bill text this month and push for a vote. The committee advanced the bill 15-9, with 2 Democrats joining Republicans in support.

The market is also watching the legislative clock. Bitcoin has risen about 10 percent so far in July and at one point climbed above $64,000, but it has since slipped back to around $62,000. On Polymarket, the probability of the bill being signed in 2026 rose to around 55 percent after shifts in the law enforcement-related mood, but it has fallen to about 45 percent as the short timeline and negotiations over the ethics provision have come back into focus.

Grayscale said Bitcoin could be near a bottom if Senate passage coincides with stability among digital asset treasury companies and the U.S. Federal Reserve avoiding additional interest rate hikes. If the bill fails this year, deleveraging at digital asset treasury companies continues and inflation pressure grows, Bitcoin could come under renewed pressure, it said.