[DigitalToday reporter Hyunwoo Choo] The odds that the CLARITY Act, a U.S. crypto market structure bill, will pass before the Senate’s August recess are swinging. After the White House’s goal of a “July 4 signing” fell through, an ethics dispute over crypto profits linked to President Donald Trump’s family has added to the delays. Talks between the parties have struggled to gain momentum.

XRP saw a string of positive developments in payment volume and trading volume indicators, but its price stayed in a range, highlighting a clear disconnect. Bitcoin extended a gradual rebound on institutional buying, but sharply opposing outlooks still faced off among experts.

• Odds of U.S. CLARITY Act passage rebound to 55%...August recess becomes a turning point • U.S. GENIUS Act detailed rules due July 18...stablecoin issuers start being sorted out • U.S. CLARITY Act direction decided on Aug. 6...ethics dispute over Trump meme coin continues • U.S. CLARITY Act passage this year “shaken”...bipartisan clash intensifies amid controversy over loopholes

The U.S. Senate offered another week of back-and-forth assessments on the CLARITY Act’s chances of passing this year. Odds that had been discussed as high as 60% fell into the 50% range as the Senate schedule tightened. They then rebounded to 55% after optimistic views from a White House adviser and positive comments from an SEC commissioner, repeating a pattern of swings. Given that the Senate enters its summer recess on Aug. 7, the practical deadline is effectively within this month. Senate Republican Leader John Thune has named the CLARITY Act a top priority, but the National Defense Authorization Act is slated to be handled first right after lawmakers return, raising concerns that floor time will be tight.

Political variables have also piled up. In recently released annual financial disclosures for President Trump, crypto-related income including meme coin royalties and revenue tied to World Liberty Financial (WLFI) was shown to total about $1.4 billion. Senator Elizabeth Warren and other Democrats again insisted that provisions to prevent conflicts of interest for public officials be a precondition for the bill.

The White House is willing to accept broad rules that apply to public officials overall but rejects provisions it sees as targeting a specific individual. Whether a final vote can be held around Aug. 6 is expected to be the biggest turning point for the crypto industry this summer. Separately, the GENIUS Act, which includes rules for stablecoin issuance, faces a July 18 deadline for detailed regulations, prompting expectations that a shakeout among issuers will materialise first.

• XRP stays quiet despite 1,000% surge in XRPL payment volume...did it end as an illusion? • XRP trading volume jumps 21%...3 factors cited as background • XRP Ledger AI transactions near 1 million...XRP at $1.30 test • Crypto lawyer: “XRP’s biggest strength is escrow...contributes to market stability”

This week, the XRP ecosystem posted especially notable results in real-world usage indicators. Reports said XRP Ledger (XRPL) payment volume surged 1,000%, alongside updates on expanded use cases such as supporting hotel booking payments at 2.2 million hotels worldwide and AI transactions nearing 1 million. Trading volume itself also rose 21%. Three factors were cited: a major upgrade preview for an Ethereum sidechain, inflows in institutional demand and increased activity in the derivatives market.

Even so, XRP’s price showed little reaction, and scepticism was also raised over whether the gap between ecosystem indicators and price would ultimately end as an illusion.

• XRP supports hotel booking payments at 2.2 million hotels worldwide • XRP Ledger previews major Ethereum sidechain upgrade...what changes? • Signs of an XRP investor sentiment reversal...golden cross forms against bitcoin • OpenUSD joined by Visa and Ripple...Cardano Foundation: “possibility of linkage is open”

On investor sentiment, conflicting signals coexisted. While a reversal sign such as a golden cross for XRP against bitcoin was observed, no clear direction was confirmed. Whether it can break above resistance at $1.65 was cited as a turning point that would separate a surge scenario toward $7.50. A crypto lawyer said XRP’s biggest strength is its escrow structure and assessed it as contributing to market stability.

Payment infrastructure expansion also continued. As the Cardano Foundation left open the possibility of linkage to OpenUSD, a stablecoin project joined by Visa and Ripple, cross-chain cooperation mediated by stablecoins appears to be broadening.

• Strategy chairman Michael Saylor: “Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over” • Bollinger Bands creator flags possible end to bitcoin bear market...“W-shaped bottom forms” • Bitcoin not immediately breakable, but...vulnerable wallets targeted by quantum computers

Bitcoin rebounded for four straight days as strong employment indicators, stable oil prices and expectations around the CLARITY Act overlapped, regaining the $62,000 level. Expert assessments, however, split to extremes. Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor said “bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle is now over,” stressing a new phase created by institutional buying. Prominent bitcoin bear Peter Schiff offered the opposite view, saying “bitcoin’s bottom price is ultimately $0.”

In technical analysis circles, the creator of Bollinger Bands pointed to the possibility that the bear market may be ending, citing a “W-shaped bottom.” Another analysis said technical warning signals sounded at the same time for the three major coins—bitcoin, ethereum and XRP—keeping caution over short-term volatility in place.

On security, an analysis said quantum computers are not yet at a level to break bitcoin immediately, but some vulnerable wallets with exposed public keys through older methods could be potential targets. It again raised the need for long-term preparation.

• Financial Supervisory Service chief meets digital asset CEOs: “Strengthen company-wide internal controls” • Coinone welcomes OKX as new shareholder...positioning to lead next-generation financial markets • Buying SK hynix with tokens?...tokenisation draws attention ahead of ADR listing

On domestic regulation, the head of the Financial Supervisory Service met with chief executives of digital asset exchanges and urged stronger company-wide internal controls, as authorities continue to tighten oversight. Coinone took steps to position itself to lead next-generation financial markets by welcoming global exchange OKX as a new shareholder. In an unusual development, attention focused on tokenising SK hynix’s American depositary receipts (ADR) ahead of their listing and trading them on-chain, newly highlighting the potential to combine traditional blue-chip stocks with blockchain infrastructure.

Whether the CLARITY Act will be pushed through before the August recess or instead slip into another year amid the ethics dispute remained the biggest variable for the crypto market this month. For XRP, the key question is when it can narrow the gap between ecosystem indicators and price. For bitcoin, attention is on which scenario it will move closer to amid opposing expert outlooks.