[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] An analysis says XRP is nearing a retest zone of a long-term trend line similar to the period just before its 2017 bull run.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain media outlet, reported on July 7 local time that XRP is ahead of a fourth retest of an uptrend line that has continued since 2020. In the past, gains followed after XRP held this zone.

Market momentum is currently bearish. XRP extended losses after turning lower in the fourth quarter of 2025. It is trading around $1.12, about 70% below its July 2025 all-time high of $3.66. Still, some read the chart as showing that the long-term uptrend itself has not yet been completely damaged.

The core question in the analysis is whether a past pattern will form again, in which XRP tested a multi-year uptrend line four times and then made a new high. In XRP’s history, this structure has been completed only once.

The first instance ran from 2013 to 2017. After open market trading began in August 2013, XRP formed an uptrend line, and each bounce after revisiting the line was followed by a rally. After retesting a low of $0.00289 in August 2013, it rose more than 2,000% to $0.0614 by December 2013. After a retest at $0.00310 in May 2014, it climbed 897% to $0.02803 by December that year.

A third retest later came in December 2015 at $0.00404, and it rebounded 134% to $0.00947 by October 2016. A fourth retest then occurred as XRP slid to $0.005 in February 2017, after which the trend shifted sharply. XRP surged to $3.31 in January 2018, rising about 63,000% in a year.

This cycle was also interpreted as having a similar structure. XRP has formed a second long-term uptrend line since early 2020, and the first test came in April 2020 at $0.1681. It then rose 1,065% to $1.96 by April 2021. The second retest was around $0.28 in June 2022, and after bouncing it gained 184% to $0.94 by July 2023.

The third retest was presented as the pullback zone around $0.49 in November 2024. XRP then surged 646% to $3.66 by July 2025. Based on this flow, the explanation said the market is now watching whether a fourth retest appears.

The key price band was given as $0.74 to $0.80. The chart’s uptrend line currently aligns with this zone, meaning that even if XRP falls further and touches this level, it could push higher again if it holds as support. The analysis said a trendline retest followed by a recovery shows, in the long term, that buyers still hold the initiative. It also cited continued formation of higher lows in the asset price.

Still, it is unclear whether this pattern will lead to an explosive rise like the past. The magnitude of rebounds along the second long-term trend line was much lower than in the first cycle. For that reason, it added a caveat that it would be difficult to expect a 63,000% rise similar to 2017. Even so, it said XRP could reach $46 if it posts only one-tenth of the rise seen then.

The key point to watch is whether the trend line is actually defended in the $0.74 to $0.80 band, rather than simply whether a rebound occurs. If XRP maintains its long-term uptrend structure in this zone, a fourth retest pattern similar to the past could be completed. If the area breaks, the premise of this analysis itself could be undermined.