Apple is expected to account for 29 percent of next year's supply of display panels for foldable smartphones with a foldable iPhone that is rumored to launch in 2026.

Online media outlet Gigazine reported on Wednesday that market research firm Counterpoint Research expects Apple's entry to lead a rebound in the foldable panel market in 2026.

Counterpoint expects shipments of foldable smartphone display panels next year to rise about 24 percent from a year earlier to 27.5 million units. It said the market size, based on revenue, is expected to grow 48 percent from a year earlier to about $4.4 billion.

Market growth is expected to be concentrated in the second half rather than spread evenly through the year. Counterpoint forecast that about 64 percent of annual panel shipments in 2026 will be concentrated in July to December. That implies demand is likely to surge in the third and fourth quarters in line with the timing of Apple's new product launch.

By company, Samsung Electronics is expected to hold the largest share of panel procurement at 31 percent. Apple is expected to follow at 29 percent, forming a de facto two-horse race. The industry sees Samsung Display as likely to supply panels for Apple's foldable iPhone.

A shift in market trends is also expected. Counterpoint said the market is likely to be reshaped around high-priced premium models and book-style products that minimise screen creases as foldable smartphones move beyond being simply experimental products and become a mainstream category.

Still, a recovery in the market mood this year was not yet clear. Global shipments of display panels for foldable smartphones in the first quarter this year were about 3.9 million units, down 7 percent from a year earlier. By supplier, China's BOE remained the largest supplier, but its share fell 7 percentage points in a year and shipments dropped 19 percent. Tianma, however, posted a 578 percent jump in shipments from a year earlier, lifting its share to 4 percent from 1 percent.

Senior analyst Jene Chi at Counterpoint said foldable smartphones are moving into the mainstream market beyond being a secondary form factor. He forecast that book-style foldables will lead the market in 2026 after being at a level similar to clamshell models in 2025, as clamshell growth slows.

Chi also said market growth is not dependent on Apple alone. He explained that long-term growth drivers will include an expansion of use cases that can improve productivity, large-screen user experiences and improved profitability for manufacturers.

The industry sees Apple's market entry as bringing significant changes not only to the smartphone market but also to the parts supply chain. In particular, if Samsung Display participates as Apple's key panel supplier, a distinctive competitive structure could emerge in which it leads both competition in finished products and parts supply.

Ultimately, the biggest variable for next year's foldable market is whether Apple actually launches a product. If Apple makes a full-scale entry, the foldable smartphone market is expected to enter a new growth phase across shipments, product mix and the supply chain.