Strategy has been left with more than $13 billion in valuation losses as bitcoin prices fall, effectively putting its funding structure for additional purchases on hold.
U.Today, a blockchain outlet, reported on June 28 that Michael Saylor posted a chart of the company's holdings on X, formerly Twitter, ahead of the weekly close, saying, "We're gonna need more charts." The market has largely taken it as a response under financial pressure rather than a fresh buying signal.
Strategy currently holds 847,363 BTC. Its average purchase price is $75,653 per bitcoin, while bitcoin trades around $60,000, leaving the company with unrealised losses of more than $13 billion. Its market value has fallen to $29 billion, dropping to a level 43 percent below the bitcoin value on its balance sheet.
The issue goes beyond paper losses. Under company rules, Strategy can buy additional cryptocurrency through new share issuance only if its market value is at least 22 percent higher than the value of the bitcoin it holds. That threshold is an mNAV of 1.22, but the current figure has fallen to 0.99. Issuing new shares in this situation would only dilute existing shareholders while weakening the impact of purchases, effectively forcing management to halt buying.
Its cash position is also not ample. Preferred shares STRC fell as low as $74.57, a quarter below par. Cash and cash equivalents total $1.4 billion, while annual mandatory spending is $1.2 billion, leaving about 14 months of dividend capacity. This is part of why the market is questioning Strategy's ability to raise additional funds.
Institutional investors are also keeping up the pressure. Jack Pan, head of research at Grayscale, argued that Strategy would need to sell at least $3 billion worth of bitcoin to cover short-term debt. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse also criticised Saylor's use of debt, saying it harms the market.
Saylor argues the company does not face liquidation as long as bitcoin is above $8,000. However, some point out that it will not be easy to recover to break-even. Key price levels with concentrated trading volume and resistance are $67,098 and $75,682, respectively, both above the current price.
Ultimately, the key variable for Strategy is how quickly bitcoin rebounds. For the company to actually resume purchases, bitcoin would need to return quickly to around $75,000. While bitcoin remains locked in a $60,000 tug of war, Saylor's "more charts" post is being read less as a sign of new buying and more as highlighting shrinking dollar reserves and a growing debt burden.
We’re gonna need more charts. pic.twitter.com/xVASOEnSw8