[Digital Today reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] XRP has slid to around $1 toward the end of June, entering a short-term turning point. XRP is increasingly likely to end June near the psychological support level of $1, and the market is watching July and early third-quarter moves.

According to blockchain outlet U.Today on June 27 local time, XRP is trading in the $1.03 to $1.04 range. On the chart, it is close to a key support line. The first half was also weak. The first quarter decline was 27.1 percent and the second quarter fall was about 22.4 percent. It lost 22.2 percent in June alone, deepening the first-half downturn.

What market participants are watching is the shift in timing. The third quarter begins on July 1, and XRP has previously seen its trend change in this period. CryptoRank data show June is XRP's worst month of the year, with an average return of minus 6.41 percent. This latest drop has coincided with that seasonal pattern.

By contrast, July statistics tilt in favour of buyers. The average monthly return in July is 10.2 percent and the median is 10.8 percent. It ended July higher in 2023 and 2025. On a third-quarter basis, the median return is 27.1 percent, the highest among the four quarters of the year. It is also cited that the third quarter has ended higher in each of the past three years.

Technical indicators were also mentioned as a factor raising expectations for a short-term rebound. XRP has previously shown a pattern of selling pressure being exhausted after two straight quarterly declines, and a bullish divergence has formed in the daily relative strength index (RSI). That is seen as a signal that sellers are weakening.

If this trend continues, a potential short-term rebound range was also suggested. If there is a move back toward average levels, XRP could stage a relief rally of around 23 to 25 percent and target the $1.39 to $1.40 range, the report said. It added that this scenario is possible only if buying actually defends liquidity around $1.

A direct market variable in early July is Ripple's compliance with California regulations. Ripple must confirm by July 1 whether it has met requirements under the California Digital Financial Assets Law. This covers the legal operation of custody services and requirements related to the RLUSD stablecoin. If compliance is completed, it could coincide with the point when short-term selling pressure loses strength, the report said.

Ultimately, the market conditions are relatively clear. The market stands at a crossroads between accumulated buying in a compressed price range driving an exit from oversold territory and producing a strong upside breakout, or the psychological support level breaking and opening the possibility of a prolonged decline below $1. As a result, XRP's early July moves are expected to be a test not only of a monthly rebound but also of whether it can defend the $1 level and set direction for the third quarter.