Mike Novogratz said the key cause of bitcoin’s recent sharp fall is a collapse in confidence surrounding Strategy.

On June 28 local time, blockchain outlet U.Today reported that Novogratz, founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital, appeared on the podcast "All Things Markets" and cited corporate fragility, shifts in macro policy and a broader confidence crisis as factors behind the digital asset market slide.

Novogratz said deteriorating investor sentiment around Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, is driving bitcoin lower. "This is a MicroStrategy-driven collapse in confidence, and the confidence crisis in that overall structure is spreading to bitcoin," he said. He said broader market fatigue is also weighing. Novogratz said that as the crypto market is being shunned overall, skepticism about the market structure is growing, and money and attention are shifting to other asset classes.

Pressure on Strategy has reportedly intensified amid concerns about large valuation losses. Co-host Anthony Scaramucci said the market sees vulnerability from $14 billion in unrealised losses at Saylor’s Strategy. He said this is spurring trades that target weaknesses, adding that markets tend to move toward points where pain is concentrated and test whether they can bring an opponent down. He said that if bitcoin is pulled down sharply enough to shake Strategy, short sellers could make large profits.

The macroeconomic environment was also cited as a factor deepening bitcoin’s weakness. Novogratz directly referenced the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance. He said Fed Chair Kevin Warsh came out hawkish at his first meeting and that Scott Bessent also strongly pushed a strong-dollar stance, changing market conditions. "Strong dollar, weak bitcoin," he said, pointing to a shift in that public arguments have been raised about why a strong dollar benefits the U.S. economy.

Novogratz also flagged price levels the market is watching. He warned that bitcoin is currently sitting on a very thin support line. "Around $60,000 and $59,000 is surprisingly important," he said, adding that the market would feel relief if that range holds, but if it breaks it could open the way down to $45,000.

He tempered confidence about the short-term direction. When Scaramucci asked whether bitcoin could hit $45,000 before returning to $85,000, Novogratz said the odds were "50-50". He said that if bitcoin is at $55,000 next week it could fall further, while if it is at $62,000 it could be seen as the support holding. He added that variables are too complex now, making it harder than usual to put weight behind a forecast.