XRP has fallen to its lowest level of the year, increasing the likelihood it could slip below the $1 mark.

But Cointelegraph reported on June 25 that on-chain indicators are sending different signals from the price trend as exchange holdings fall, net outflows from Binance continue, whales keep net buying and spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) see inflows at the same time.

XRP is currently trading slightly above $1. It is the weakest price range this year. Technically, the higher time-frame market structure is still seen as bearish. XRP fell to $1.01 on June 25 to mark a 2026 low, and some are also raising the possibility it could fall below $1 for the first time since November 2024. It is down 43 percent since the start of the year.

Exchange-held XRP has been declining while the price stays weak. Crypto analyst Amr Taha pointed out that Binance's XRP reserves fell to their lowest since March. About 100 million XRP left Binance over the past month, and Binance holdings fell to 2.68 billion XRP on June 25 from 2.78 billion XRP on May 12. It was the largest absolute outflow among major trading platforms.

Trading flows on Binance have also shifted. For 7 straight days since June 17, the number of XRP withdrawal transactions exceeded the number of deposit transactions. Large-holder flows pointed in the same direction. Based on a 90-day moving average, XRP whale fund flows stayed at net inflows of 5,143,000 XRP a day throughout this quarter.

Institutional funds also flowed in. Spot XRP ETFs posted net inflows of $2 million in a single day on June 24, and net inflows in June rose to $31 million. Cumulative inflows since April stand at $243 million. It is notable that funds did not flow out even when prices were weak.

But the price chart has not yet confirmed a rebound. The next key range for XRP is being cited as between $1 and $0.63. The range is an unfilled price gap left during the sharp rally in late 2024, and it has been presented as an area where buying could emerge if the decline continues.

Some also offer a long-term view. Versan Aljarrah (버산 알자라), founder of Black Swan Capitalist, said XRP has formed a large accumulation zone for years and has shown a pattern of higher lows on weekly and monthly bases. He also said that prolonged sideways trading often leads to a stronger rise once the range is broken, and he presented $10 as a target.

XRP is being tested on whether it can defend the $1 level in price terms, but on-chain and fund flows are showing opposing signals at the same time. In the short term, whether $1 holds is key, but investors must also watch whether the decline in exchange holdings, ETF inflows and whale accumulation continue.