An analysis says the low in XRP’s latest decline cycle could depend on what type of sideways pattern it is forming under Elliott Wave theory.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Wednesday that an expanding flat currently appears more likely than a regular flat. It said a running flat remains a valid scenario for now.

XRP hit an all-time high of $3.66 in July 2025 and has faced selling pressure since then. The current price is around $1.08, down about 70 percent from the peak. The downtrend has continued for 11 months, with monthly declines in 8 of the last 10 months. It is already down about 18 percent in June 2026.

The key question is whether this correction corresponds to a sideways move that continues in an Elliott Wave A-B-C structure. In the longer-term trend, Wave A began after a $3.31 peak in January 2018 and fell about 97 percent to $0.11 in March 2020, forming a low. Wave B then retraced the prior decline and climbed to a new high of $3.66 in July 2025. In that structure, where the ongoing Wave C ends is seen as the factor that will determine the next low.

The regular flat scenario was presented as the least persuasive. In a regular flat, Wave B typically retraces to near the start of Wave A and Wave C ends near the Wave A low. But XRP’s Wave B rose past $3.31 to $3.66. Forcing this scenario would put the low near the past low of $0.11, but the analysis said that is far from the current structure.

For now, the expanding flat was presented as the scenario that fits best. In an expanding flat, Wave B exceeds the start of Wave A and Wave C drops below the Wave A low to create a new downside extreme. XRP already meets that condition in Wave B. But applying a standard 1.618 Fibonacci extension pushes the target effectively below $0, making it unlikely. A gentler 1.0 Fibonacci projection was presented as an alternative, which would put a possible floor at $0.46.

A running flat was also not ruled out. In that structure, Wave B can also exceed the start of Wave A, but Wave C does not break below the Wave A low. Instead, it forms a bottom above it and then returns to an uptrend. In that case, XRP’s correction low could be between $0.50 and $0.80. In particular, $0.80 also aligns with floor projections presented by some analysts.

It also noted that current market action is not favorable to a running flat. XRP has posted monthly declines for almost a year and the scale of the drop is large, which it said points to strong bearish momentum. Even so, the scenario remains valid as long as XRP stays above $0.11. If $0.11 is clearly broken, the possibility of a running flat disappears.

An upside invalidation condition was also presented. If XRP posts a startling rebound that breaks above the $3.66 all-time high and continues rising, the assumption of a sideways corrective phase would no longer hold. In that case, the current decline would need to be interpreted as part of another, larger market structure.

Ultimately, the near-term levels to watch are $0.80, $0.50, $0.46 and $0.11. The view said judgments about this cycle’s low will vary depending on where the Wave C decline that followed the $3.66 peak stops.