At the current burn pace, it would take about 720,913 years to reduce XRP’s total supply to 500 million tokens, an analysis showed.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain outlet, reported on Tuesday that the XRP Ledger burns an average 373 XRP a day, leaving it far from some in the market’s expectations for supply reduction.

XRP’s total supply is 99.98 billion tokens. Of that, 32.74 billion tokens are locked in escrow and 67.22 billion are already in circulation. At the current burn pace, the XRP Ledger would reduce supply by about 2,611 tokens a week, about 11,560 a month on a 31-day basis, and about 138,000 a year.

Even cutting only the circulating supply to 500 million would take an enormous amount of time at that pace. Reducing circulation from 67.22 billion to 500 million would require removing about 66.72 billion tokens, which would take about 483,478 years at an annual burn of 138,000. Lowering total supply from 99.98 billion to 500 million would require burning about 99.48 billion tokens, extending the period to about 720,913 years. The calculation shows that arguments for supply reduction raised in and outside the community are not realistic.

The market continues to assess whether burning can support prices over the long term. But the XRP Ledger’s burn mechanism is not intended to increase scarcity in the first place. The XRP Ledger has been designed since its launch in 2012 to permanently burn small amounts of XRP whenever transactions occur, but the core purpose is to prevent network spam.

In normal conditions, the base transaction fee is 10 drops per transaction, or 0.00001 XRP. If network congestion worsens, the fee rises automatically. It is a mechanism to manage demand and keep performance stable. It removes tokens rather than distributing fees to validators or other participants, but the supply-reduction effect is very small.

Price scenarios also change sharply only if supply reduction is assumed. If XRP’s market capitalisation stays at around $68 billion and supply falls to 500 million tokens, the price per token would be about $136. That would be up 12,263 percent from the current price of $1.10. If XRP returns to its market-cap peak of $215 billion recorded in July 2025 and supply is 500 million tokens, the price per token would rise to about $430. The gain versus the current price would be 38,990 percent.

But all of these calculations hold only on the assumption that a large-scale supply reduction actually happens. XRP was designed from the start with a fixed supply structure of 100 billion tokens, and no new coins are issued. Even so, Ripple executives and official documents maintain that the burn mechanism is meant to block spam, not to create scarcity.

Ultimately, it was confirmed again that it is difficult to meaningfully reduce XRP supply with the current burn pace alone. The burn mechanism reduces supply over the long term, but it is difficult to see it as a scarcity-enhancing device strong enough to influence short-term prices. XRP’s price trend is likely to be driven more by actual demand, market liquidity and whether the Ripple ecosystem expands than by expectations for burning.