The United States is bringing forward to 2031 a federal deadline to shift to quantum-resistant cryptography and is pushing quantum computer development as a national task, putting bitcoin security back in the spotlight. Concerns are growing that about 7 million bitcoins whose public keys are already exposed could become potential targets for future quantum computers.

On June 23 local time, blockchain outlets CryptoSlate and Decrypt reported that U.S. President Donald Trump signed two executive orders on June 22. The first order requires federal agencies to transition their encryption key systems for high-value assets and core systems to quantum-resistant cryptography by the end of 2030, and their digital signature systems by the end of 2031. That is 4 years earlier than the previous 2035 target.

The second order establishes the Quantum Computing Applications Development Program (QC-ADDS) under the Department of Energy. The department will set technical requirements within 90 days and review adoption costs and a cooperation structure within 180 days.

The industry is interpreting the move as a signal that the U.S. government will accelerate quantum computing development and the cryptographic transition at the same time. Alex Pruden (알렉스 프루든), chief executive of Project Eleven, said, "Quantum computing and quantum-resistant cryptography are now on the same five-year clock." He added, "The quantum-resistant transition is no longer a future issue but a present issue."

Attention is naturally turning to the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin maintains security based on public-key cryptography, but the risk has long been raised that if a sufficiently powerful quantum computer emerges and runs Shor's algorithm, it could derive a private key from an exposed public key.

Bitcoin with exposed public keys is estimated at about 7 million coins. At current value, that is about $449 billion. More than 70 percent of the total exposed amount is analysed as resulting from repeated use of the same address.

The most vulnerable layer is cited as about 1.08 million bitcoins mined in 2009, in bitcoin's early days. Those holdings are stored in the network's early P2PK format and have shown no movement record for nearly 16 years. The market sees that if those holdings suddenly move, it could be taken as a signal that quantum security concerns have become reality.

Many also assess that the threat has not materialised immediately. Martin Hiesboeck (마틴 히스뵈크), head of research at Uphold, said, "The cryptography community has already secured quantum-resistant cryptography standards and is integrating them." He added, "Current quantum hardware error rates are millions of times higher than levels needed for a real cryptographic attack."

The issue is the speed of transition rather than the technology. Google researchers this year announced a method that can significantly reduce the physical resources needed for related attacks, and Ethereum researcher Justin Drake (저스틴 드레이크) estimated the probability of a cryptographically meaningful quantum computer emerging by 2032 at more than 10 percent.

The bigger task is bitcoin's structural characteristics. Banks and companies can replace cryptographic systems under government guidelines, but bitcoin is a decentralised network with no central operator. Proposals such as BIP-360 and BIP-361 for a quantum-resistant transition are being discussed, but developers, miners, exchanges, custodians and large holders all have to agree.

The industry sees the real test for bitcoin as whether users worldwide can move assets to a new quantum-resistant address system in sufficient time, rather than the quantum computer itself.