Bitcoin mining profitability has fallen below 5 percent, bringing renewed attention in the market to a “miner capitulation” signal.

Cointelegraph reported on June 12 that bitcoin’s spot price has stayed at a low level relative to mining difficulty and production costs, sharply squeezing profitability across the mining industry.

The key point is that pressure on miners is being interpreted by long-term investors as a buy-zone signal. A pseudonymous trader, Killa, wrote on X that miners are “capitulating” based on price and difficulty indicators, and said “a signal that has historically shown a perfect accumulation point has appeared again.”

An on-chain “miner capitulation” chart presented by analytics platform Bitbo shows a similar 흐름. A metric comparing the current bitcoin spot price with long-term lows in mining difficulty has moved into a clear negative zone, overlapping with patterns seen during past bitcoin bear markets. The zone indicates a situation in which miners’ profitability deteriorates and selling pressure could increase.

Conditions are also worsening quickly based on mining costs. Charles Edwards (찰스 에드워즈), founder of quantitative bitcoin and digital-asset fund Capriole Investments, said in an analysis this week that bitcoin is effectively trading around production cost. “Miners are now, on average, barely breaking even,” he said.

Capriole Investments estimates current production cost at about $61,200 and electricity cost at $48,965. The resulting mining margin is 4.67 percent, close to a recent two-year low recorded in early June. Production and electricity costs are key gauges of miners’ overall profitability, and as bitcoin’s price approaches this zone, the likelihood of miner selling also rises.

Some say it is still too early to interpret the market as having reached a final bottom. In a separate outlook, Killa said bitcoin’s next bear-market low is still ahead. He said it is likely that after traditional financial markets go through a correction at some point this year, bitcoin could form its final pivot low. The view is that miner pressure can be read as a buying opportunity, while a macro market correction could also trigger additional declines in bitcoin.

This trend also intersects with the broader deterioration in mining profitability. With mining margins dropping below 5 percent, other indicators also show miners’ profits remain at historically low levels. There have been precedents in which long-term investment opportunities emerged when bitcoin’s price approached the zone between production and electricity costs, but in this phase the focus remains on the need to consider miner stress together with the possibility of a broader financial market correction.

Ultimately, the market is showing two signals at the same time. One is that worsening miner profitability could, as in the past, signal a long-term buying zone. The other is a warning that a bitcoin bear-market bottom has not yet been confirmed. Which way bitcoin moves between production and electricity costs, and whether a correction in traditional financial markets actually materialises, are variables that will determine the market’s direction, the outlet reported.