Ahead of SpaceX's initial public offering, the crypto industry is competing to draw retail investors worldwide. Products ranging from prediction markets to perpetual futures and tokenised assets are emerging in succession. That is opening a way to bet on a SpaceX listing without a traditional securities account.
On June 11 local time, blockchain media outlet Decrypt reported that crypto platforms are launching a large number of related financial products to capture investment demand around a SpaceX listing. Overseas retail investors, who have difficulty accessing U.S. IPOs directly, are being cited as a main target.
The market is showing strong interest in SpaceX's listing scheduled for June 13. On Wall Street, investment orders are said to have poured in from the book-building stage, far exceeding the shares on offer. Crypto companies are moving to secure investors by presenting alternatives that allow investing in SpaceX price moves outside traditional financial markets.
Most products currently offered are not structured to hold actual SpaceX shares directly. Investors can expect returns from price fluctuations but cannot receive dividends or voting rights. They also do not provide a direct claim on SpaceX assets.
Competition among platforms is also intense. On prediction market Polymarket, bets are under way on SpaceX's market capitalisation based on the closing price on its first trading day. Participants currently see a higher likelihood that SpaceX's market capitalisation will form between $2 trillion and $2.5 trillion.
On another prediction market, Myriad, the probability that market capitalisation will exceed $1.3 trillion based on the first-day close is reflected at about 94%. By contrast, Kalshi, which operates under U.S. regulatory jurisdiction, is not offering a similar product.
Crypto exchanges are also accelerating launches of related products. Kraken parent Payward is offering a token linked to SpaceX shares through its xStocks service. The product can be traded in more than 100 countries and is being sold on the basis of $135 per share, around the IPO offer price.
Coinbase International has introduced a pre-listing perpetual futures contract that tracks SpaceX's corporate value. The product is structured so that the reference price is adjusted in line with the stock's price movement after the actual listing. Similar derivatives are also being traded on decentralised exchange Hyperliquid, and the market is currently valuing SpaceX at about $168 per share.
Solana-based tokens have also emerged recently. Crypto exchange Backpack said it supports trading of a SpaceX-linked token on its platform and in a self-custody wallet. The token was designed to be convertible into traditional shares later.
The industry views the SpaceX listing as a case showing that the boundary between tokenised assets and traditional finance is breaking down quickly. At the same time, investor protection and regulatory issues are coming back into focus.
In fact, a SpaceX and OpenAI-linked token that Robinhood introduced last year for European customers stirred controversy as it became known that it was not actual stock ownership. At the time, OpenAI drew a line by saying the token did not mean its shares, and Robinhood explained it as a tokenised contract that tracks price.
The market sees the SpaceX IPO as a test case that will show both the growth potential and limits of crypto-based investment products. A structure without actual share ownership, differences in regulations by country, and the way prices are tracked after listing are cited as key variables that will shape investors' assessments.